As I see it the Australians will not be caught off guard this time. Hoping that they will underestimate England again is wishful thinking. The Australians are in fine form and have proved it in every match since the Ashes last year. Ricky Ponting, Hussey, Hayden, Clarke, Gilchrist and others form a formidable batting line up which will not be ambushed twice (especially following the commando style boot camp). Their bowling line will choke the poms especially if McGrath is on song. England on the other hand despite recent results are struggling with injuries to key players. No Vaughan to provide that mix of innovation and inspiration. No Simon Jones to fully exploit the wonders of reverse swing. Trescothick looks unstable at the moment and as a Pakistani I know how important opening batsmen are to the welfare of any team. The defense of the Ashes is being placed in the hands of a squad whose performance is contingent on too many factors and too many players. Though the pitches will suit both bowling attacks, I fear that the English bowlers are not as accurate and Hoggard especially may be a bit too reliant on conventional swing which may be hard to come by with kookaburra balls. Added to this is the fact that Harmison, Flintoff, Anderson, Plunkett are still on the injured list, while Saj may find that a maiden Australian tour presents more opportunities to fail rather than succeed. As it stands I sadly predict a convincing Australian victory, cause I like all other cricket fans not from 'Down Under' glorify in Aussie defeat. Good luck England, you'll definitely need it.

I don't know, the England comments seem to be pretty upbeat on your chances too.

Australia to win 2/1.

I think that England have just enough batting depth not to miss Vaughan and to survive without Trescothick if need be. Their absence would at least solve the selection problem of who should be left out from Bell, Collingwood, and Cook - who are all in good form at the moment - with Strauss, Pietersen, Flintoff and Read rounding out the top seven.

I'm far more worried about the England bowling though. With so many injuries around, I wouldn't like to guess who'll be making up the seam attack; although I suppose the combination of Hoggard, Harmison, Flintoff and Anderson sounds good on paper if they can hold together. There's also far too much expectation on Panesar; the reality is that he's had a couple of great performances and a lot of fairly indifferent ones. Realistically, he might turn the odd match but is unlikely to be a major factor throughout.

Whilst the Australian side isn't totally without problems I think they're going to go into the series as a much more settled unit overall and are, quite rightly, strong favourites.

More reasons to be Cheerful
Australia are going into this Ashes series over confident. Who have they played of note since the last Ashes series, South Africa - twice, Bangladesh and West Indies. They've won 11 out of 12 - the real question is why didn't they win 12 out of 12!

Compare this to England's warm up: India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan - all of whom have good spinners for the batsmen to play before facing Warne again, and all of which are teams placed in the ICC test table top 5. I would read much more into England's series win against Pakistan than Australia's against the woeful West Indies.

England also played these test with a depleted squad and have unearthed some strength in depth we didn't have 12 months ago. Anyone remember the big debate over who would replace Simon Jones for the 4th test - Gough, Tremlett there were even calls for Caddick to come back. I vividly recall the Ashley Giles newspaper article - "We don't have an English Shane Warne, I'm the best we've got". Well he can't say that anymore. I can't wait to see Panesar destroy their batting line up.

Ok, here's a tip for you; Read the artist to be dropped for Jones the journeyman. Read isn't as good a keeper as the media insists, he's not much better than Jones(if Read's an artist then Bob Taylor was da Vinci), he'll never score heavy runs at test level and is mentally suspect. I'll be suprised if Read plays the first test and amazed if he's still in the side at the end of the series.
A long term solution to the England wicket keeping position needs to be found, hopefully Worcs. Steven Davies will kick on. We'd be much better off with Jones until then though

Here we go again, Aussies being branded as "over-confident" for barracking for their team as any other fan would. Probably to be followed up with an all too predictable show of "arrogance" for each of their un-renounced victories.

I actually predicted 2-2 before the last Ashes series, and I wasn't far off. However, in this up-coming series I think the momentum is in Australia's favour, and you're dead right about the 4-1 prediction being ambitious: England are far too slow and boring a batting side for all 5 tests to end in a result. I say 2-1 to the Aussies.

Australia lost the ashes because they probably had their worst fielding display for years.Gilchrist, Warne, Hayden all dropped important catches.Their fielding has been quite outstanding since.Their obstinacy in keeping players like Hussey out should not be repeated.Australia should win.But it will be close

They're playing at home. We're literally half the blessed team we were last summer. And finally, I fear KP goes clubbing too much.

Let's just hope the Windies World Cup makes up for the thud back to earth feeling in a few months.

i share the same apprehension as alot of english cricket fans at the moment is freddie fit? is he lacking match pratice? has kp's form dipped due to the recent celebrity buzz thats surrounds him do we have the leadership? the selection we once did? will we play as well infront of an aussie crowd on aussie pitches? and more importantly are we playing the same McGrathless aussie side that shared arguably the most entertaining series of cricket ever seen i'm a optimistic realist and i think with a little luck and the barmy army there to represent, the lads could really show this poor excuse of a country what it really means to be an englishmen

To Chris K - is that the same "slow and boring" England side that scored 407 on the first day at Edgbaston last year and generally scored more quickly than Australia did all summer? Thought so.

I thnk Bangladesh will win..oh wait...

Dude who cares..with all due respect to ashes......dust to dust..........fade to Black.

ahahaha

Peace
Kirkit

As a die hard England fan living in New Zealand, i cant wait to see our boys try and retain the Ashes in their own backyard. The convicts are definitely worried about this England team. The fact that Punter Ponting felt he had to go to the press with" im surprised they picked Flintoff as captain" is a sure sign they are not as cocksure as we might think they are.

my one major worry is the press. I refer you back to the derision that greeted Englands capitulation in the first lords test. If you guys go for the throat in Aussie should we not perform in the first test, we will have given the aussies every reason in the world to start gloating. For me it is simple, momentum through confidence and consistent performance will retain us the Ashes. Come on press guys, take responsibility for your words and get behind this England team

Australia deservedly lost the Ashes in 2005, and many of us down under felt that they side was unjustifiably confident going in. Plenty of Aussie fans have questioned Ponting's captaincy ability, and were also unsure about the selection policy prior to the series. Much was said at the time.

I think that it was a narrow loss in that series may well give rise to a stronger Australian side this time around.

It amuses me that many overseas pundits are saying Australia is only one injury to Glenn McGrath away from being finished. I would debate this, suggesting that there are plenty of players in the Sheffield Shield who are of the standard required to make the step up. Bear in mind that a lot of (not all) Aussies have made a lot of runs or taken plenty of wickets in the county stuff in the past few months.

Not that I think Australia will be a shoo-in, but I feel the 'favourites' tag is well deserved.

Nasser Hussain quite rightly believes that England won the Ashes last time because they could finally bowl the Aussies out twice. If fit, (& its a big if) Englands attack can still do that. Simon Jones will be sorely missed but theres enough there to potentially pick up the slack. I for one have a suspicion that the Aussies are also papering over the cracks with their bowlers but that remains to be seen. As for the batting, much like last time, Englands top 7 will finish the series in a "score draw" with the Aussie attack. Assuming Englands bowlers can match the same levels then it will be decided on the little things. The key ones nearly all went Englands way last time (winning more toss', the 2 run win, Katich's poor LBW decision at Trent Bridge, McGrath being effectively injured for the last 4 tests and so on.) In some respects, Englands injuries over the past 12 months have prepared them better for this series. Bell will be much better and Collingwood (if he plays) will score more runs then Vaughan did in the last series. Only batsman I have concerns over is Cook. He could very well be this years Ian Bell. Series prediction: 2-2

Yes Tim lets be cheerful,

I believe we have in prospect,the classic rekindling of a fire that never dies.

It began in 1877 and flares with regular and resounding energy: what an irony when the Old world is represented by youth and the New World by, shall we say, "a good vintage!"

Of course to our friends from other parts it is the fact that these contests now number several hundreds over such a long period that adds to the anticipation-it is simply amazing how this battle history stirs the imagination and (perhaps because of this) produces so often the best the game can offer, era after era.

Are we witnessing, this time surely, the final changing of the guard?

May I remind with pride the readers that there have been 4 periods of Aussie cricket here since 1989:
Borders 89-94 played 54 won 27 lost 7 drew 12
Taylor 94-99 played 50 won 27 lost 12 drew 11
Waugh 99-03 played 59 won 42 lost 10 drew 7
Ponting 03-? played 34 won 25 lost 3 drew 6

total 89-06 played 197 won 121 lost32 drew 44

So if changing of the guard it is, there is much
to celebrate and be cheerful about.

It's been a good run. Our reality is that we havent seen any first hand evidence of this English revival since 1986/7-ie a whole generation of Aussie's have grown up believing the three crowns meant nothing!

So can Fred Flintoff's courage,personality and bravura rise to the occasion on our shores-because I believe,( and he has to be fit)he alone will surely inspire his fellows to great heights which will ensure the contest is well fought and ( though it might surprise you) well received in the "great south land"-we love a contest most of all!

On the other hand can our troublesome yet brilliant young captain repeat yet again his combative "from the front" compelling batsmanship and critically can he contain himself and outsmart these chaps from colder,thoughtful climes?

Will our champion Gilchrist unfold his era shaking prowess and once again cause the crowds to scatter?

Can Warnie and Glenn do it again one last time?

Or will the Ashes passed to Englands new guard in the "old Dart" be returned safely "urned"?

Can Harmie and Hoggers blow the Langer/Hayden mystique for good and open up the Ozzie inner sanctum to Fred's fury?

And finally is English batting to be restored to allow the spirits of Hammond,Hobbs,Hutton,Compton ,May, Cowdrey and Barrington to rest in peace.. and I daresay the likes of Dexter Boycott, Gower and Gooch to feel a bit better.

Its been a while chaps! So young Strauss,Bell, and Cook -the ball will be in your court and I guess Fred and Kevin are guaranteed to have Beefy smiling did I forget Trescothick? Come on mate!

No shortage of characters this time around!!

Reason Tim, to be cheerful!!

Its series that for oncea yes lets

As much as I hate to admit it, the Aussies pretty much have this tour covered. The England team performed well against Pakistan, but let me point out the obvious which is that an injury ravaged Pakistan side (missing 3 front line bowlers and 1 opening batsmen) cannot be compared to a full strength, hell bent on revenge, Australian team. England beat Aus last year because Vaughan was able to out maneuver Ponting, McGrath was injured, Simon Jones proved a formidable exponent of reverse swing and freddie flintoff was inspiring. Fast forward to the present, no Vaughan, no simon jones, Mcgrath is looking good and flintoff will have a hard time replicating his performance especially after such a long lay off. And KP of late has been found suspect against tight outside off stump stuff by Mohd. Asif, and who better than McGrath to exploit that weakness? Despite all the optimism from you English fans, I say pray that warne and mcgrath step on some more cricket balls or its gonna be bye bye Ashes.

Key for the English batsmen : figure out how to play against Shane Warne
one way to do it is get some tips from Sachin Tendulkar...

I don't think there is anything to cheer about. England has never encountered a pace attack of the quality of the Aussies since the ashes. They haven't done well against the leg spin of Kumble and Kaneria either. I dont see them achieving a great deal of success against the likes of McGrath, Warne & co.
The poms have a good enough bowling attack, but the dry and hot conditions down under & the kookaburra ball will not aid the kind of swing they got in the last ashes. Infact they haven't been able to replicate that reverse swing even in any of their home series since. I guess, with all respect to Kevin Shine , they need to have a crash course with Troy Cooley before the ashes .

A lot of people have commented on the three articles that Tim has written, and no surprise.
Now that Flintoff has been appointed the captain, I feel that the series revolves around the two captains. Both are among the best (if not the best)players on their sides. Both players lead on the strength of their personal performances more than their captaincy skills.
However, what if Flintoff isn't fit for the first test? Will England be able to absorb that loss? I don't think so.
What if either of the captains lose form? They are bound to at some point, and Ponting has been in the form of his life for the past three years now.
But let us stop this talk of injuries and loss of form. What we would like, no, love to watch is two full strength teams take each other on; no quarter given, none asked for.

This is for the teams:
Come on boys, give us a war!

To James:
"Poor Excuse of a country" hey, if thats how an englishman goes around talking about other peoples countries on the basis of a game well damn I am glad I am not one, I have been to England and hey it wasnt too bad, damn cold and it rained most of the time, the people were generally rude and couldnt wait to get home, but I wouldnt say it was a poor excuse for a country,
but I reckon you are a poor excuse for an englishman.
And I am damn passionate about my team as well, Mcgrath and Warnie still kicking on, who gives a stuff about there age, if they are performing they deserve their place, it helps that we have the best domestic competition in the world, a pity for some of the younger fellas, half of the players would be good enough to represent England, just not quite good enough to break into the Aussie side,
Onto the upcoming series, Australia lost a the series 2-1, big deal, one series , wow, doesnt stop them being the best overnight, I think the poms are in for quite a big shock come first session at the Gabba, I honestly think England wont have the firepower or experience on Aussie pitches to do what they done at home, I hope that it is going to be a tight competitive affair and am excited about seeing some of the poms play, Flintoff especially but also this new bloke Panesar, am a bit of a fan of KP as well, in fact I think that Flintoff and KP are the only two people in your side that could ever, maybe get a run in the Aussie side, the only two that I would like to see anyway. Dont get me wrong as a unit the poms are doing ok, most of the team is quality (just not Aussie quality) but their form since the last ashes leaves a lot to be desired, I will be suprised if Australia doesnt win at least 3 or 4 of the tests, hey, you poms might get the dead rubber. Aussies 4-1.

I'm not sure Matt B has a great understanding of Australian conditions. When was the last time a finger spinner performed well in Australia? Even te great Murali has trouble getting wickets on Australian soil. I'm worried the Aussies will take Panesar apart!

Good to c some interest forn the English fans after a long time. Otherwise I thought the interest for the game wes just getting confined to the Indian sub-continent.
Atleast for the game's sake I wish English retains Ashes 2-1.
That way nobody can say last year's victory was a fluke.
Someone talked about poor fielding being the cause for Aussies losing in '05. But what about the dollies dropped by KP?
I don't think England would miss Vaughan or Jones to such a great extent.
Freddie's agression as a player and Captain could be critical while KP needs to curb over aggression.
Injuries are no excuse but there is two months to go and I feel most of the players could be fit by then. Aussies themselves will be under pressure.McGrath is not looking his old self.
Langer would be having the injury caused by Ntini in his mind. Melbourne, sydney could help Panesar. Over all it could be a tight series but England have the ammunition to win 2-1.
GOOD LUCK!!!

Ah punditry at its best.

Is it not true that the time leading up to the series brings out the best in we cricket tragics? Our emotions betray our conscious thought and reveal for whom we will barrack when the battle starts.

Then when the play is in full flight it's the players turn. We spectate and drink in the battle.

At its end the glory is with the victors and the vanquished argue that they were never that arrogant when they won.

It'll be a good series, fear not. My prediction? Typically I want to see who the Aussies pick... watch out for Mitchell Johnson.

Why is it that Australian team is always accused of being "over-confident" and "arrogant"?
Before any cricket series the two teams exchange the usual banter about who will win and by how much. Australia will talk up their chances, just as England will. Surely, any team is entitled to do this.
The only reason the Aussies are accused of arrogance is that their formidable form over the past decade casts all their pre-series comments in a different light than England's....

Australia have won a lot in the past - they think they will win again - they don't expect their form to change - therefore they must be "arrogant" and "over-confident".

England haven't won as much in the past - they think they will this time - they are being positive and confident.

If anything, it seems to me that England are the ones who are being a little arrogant by assuming that the Australians have learnt nothing from last years defeat. The Australians have not remained so dominant for so long by making the same mistakes twice.

Three words: No reverse swing

We may have all our pace bowlers hit form at the same time, and McGrath might trip over a ball. But failing those two frankly miraculous things happening at the same time, I think we will be outbowled and overwhelmed.

I'd love nothing more than to see England beat these Aussies, and have Ponting and McGrath cry into their big pillows, but I just can't see it happening with what the teams have available.

On the other hand, chin up lads, they have to come back to England next time around, in all likelyhood sans McGrath and Warne. If we lose the urn this time around I don't see it being for too long.

To Aditya: AKA: aussie convict
My my my aren't we sensitive, aussie's really u crack me up, i think you may have misunderstood what i was saying mate...i wasn't having a crack at australia (though i do relish the opportunity) i've never been so?...'poor excuse of a country' is in reference to england and due to its current state unfortunatly it is, we've lost our way as a little, bad politics hoodies running amock bashing everyone in site stabbings left right and center for blowing your nose or looking at someone wrong, yes its not that bad but england used to be a great country with some of the best people in the world and for me cricket and its followers (as well as the rugby fans) are the only epitome of true english sportsmansihp left which is why i turn to them to show us what its all about again,i'm sure australia's great and is no poor excuse of a country,... just a poor excuse of a cricket team, and don't ever question me as an englishman again or i'll come looking for you (just kidding mate have a sense of humour about urself............ but seriously i will : ) lol)

It's really nice to see Ashes generating so much interest. It can only do good for the game. I really hope England wins the Ashes. My heart says England but my head says Australia. England have erred in picking Freddie as the captain, Strauss would have been the better choice, simply because Freddie could be much better off without the burden of captaincy. If they are to win in Australia, they need Freddie firing in all cylinders, without the cares of captaincy. I hope I am proven wrong.

I think before any Ashes there is mind game, but last time Mcgrath was talking bout 5-0 then came to 4-1 and so on. But I think first two days of first test match will set the tone.But if first test at Lord's last time is any thing to do with this, I think I may prove wrong.I think on current form and Australia, wounded tigers...I believe even though Tim has given us few positives, I will give Aussies 60-40 chances this time.Best of luck England.This will prove how motivative captain Flintoff is, if he can turn those 40 percent in to 70 or 80, he will be the best captain ever for England.

Some very valid points have been raised, I would just like to add my spin on things; Were India a better team than Australia in 2001 and 03/04? Probably not. Were England a better team Australia in 2005? Maybe. The point is England don't have to be as good as Australia, they just have to be good enough to worry the Australians, this will bring their levels of performance down as they get scared of losing (see all examples given).

If England can get into the Australians heads' they will win, (and vice versea). This is the real chance for England to show their mental toughness against the Aussie team, the media and the hostile crowds.

To my mind the selection isn't great but its not that bad either, form is pretty irrelevant, its about who's got the bottle come the first morning at the Gabba. For the record these are my XI's England: Trescothick, Strauss, Cook, Pietersen, Bell, Flintoff, Read, Broad, Panesar, Hoggard, Harmison.
Australia: Hayden, Langer, Ponting, Martyn, Hussey, Symonds, Gilchrist, Warne, Lee, Magrath, Johnson.

One Thing is for sure, its set to be a great series, lthough the heart says England, I feel Australia will stand up to the challenges England pose. 2-1 Australia

i dont know.. all those miss-hit sixes from the last series wont be clearing the fence on most of the Aus grounds.. Ponting was stung by being first Aus captain to lose in 20years, and he'll be pumped to make amends.. he has destroyed teams since..
Lee has learnt to be patient, quick, very quick, but patient... hitting Kallis in the head, then yorking him next ball was a highlight last summer..
Monty will have his work cut out over here, not as much turn, and syd is that last test, which may come too late to be any influence, he needs to bowl well in adelaide!
Bell is Eng's best batsmen by far now.. and thats not disrespecting him at all, but i believe most of the others have been poor of late.. that may all change over here, and Eng fans would hope it would.. they cant keep the urn if it doesnt.
For the Aussies, they will be a better team this summer if they forget of Watson and stick with Symonds or Clarke.. Look for a different Hayden, refreshed Gilchrist and Hussey making it hard work for Eng bowlers..

I agree with Luke, during Indian visit down under last time...if John Wright's book is any thing to go by, they decided from the word go that they will keep their heads high, what ever happens. Though First test at Brisbane was wash out, Ganguly made superb century and then first time in many year in most of all four test, Aussies were chasing Indians. Mind you Steven Waugh was the captain, and if he was out of clues then, then I think Ponting is no Waugh, we could see him chewing few finger nails during some vital moments of last Ashes in England.So Luke has raised a very valid point. As I said in my previous post, there is allways a mind game before every Ashes, and if Flintoff can show what our dear DADA (Ganguly)show three years back at Brisbane (same venue), England can make Aussies run behind them...let's see.....

The Ashes seem to be over before the series started and every sane person believes that England have a very slim change. But let's just say they are able to win (England needs to win the opening day if they want to stay in it), what then? Are they then the best team in the world? They were less than convincing last winter and have never shown the same consistency that we have grown to expect from Australia.

In other words, no matter which way the series goes, it may not have international consequences. Why? Because last year a much more formidable England beat Australia and yet failed to maintain the intensity they played the Ashes with. Nothing to me suggests that an weaker England, even if they win against all odds, will be able to maintain the unbelieveable intensity it will take to beat the Aussies in their own backyard.

I hate to say it, but it's the truth - the biggest reason England won the Ashes last time round was because McGrath rolled his ankle before the second test! There are other reasons too, of course, such as; Australia's entire middle order being out of form, Gillespie and Kaspa being has-beens, Gilchrist's first ever form slump, a number of woeful umpiring decisions going England's way, home groud advantage, Flintoff and Jones playing out of their skins, Vaughan outsmarting Ponting and Australia's uncharacteristically poor fielding. This time around, Australia have a fit McGrath, Hussey in the middle order, Gilchrist rested, Clarke and Lee bowling better than Gillespie and Kaspa ever did, home ground advantage and Vaughan and Jones on the sidelines. England have two match winners in KP and Freddie, but Australia have at least five matchwinners in Ponting, Warne, McGrath, Gilchrist and Hussey. Everything and then more fell England's way last time, yet they only just scrapped to a very fortunate 2-1 win. Even if everything were to fall their way again - which it won't, I'm sorry to say - I can't see England winning a test. It's been good, enjoy it while is lasts. Australia 4-0.

I am a England fan and would love to see England retain the ashes down under, However i am not confident. Bowling Attack doesn't Look to inspiring, I am not convinced by Plunkett or Mahmood. We will miss Simon Jones. Also Crowd played a huge factor in england win the last ashes series. However the Batting Line-up looks good. Concerned with Trescothick though, with his 'stress related problems' Pressure from crowds and media may become too much. I hope i am wrong and we will retain the ashes but i predict a 2-1 victory to the aussies.

I think England have made 3 questionable decisions in selection. Most obvious is captaincy; Flintoff needs to be concentrating on batting, bowling and fielding rather than field placings, after-dinner speeches and press conferences. Strauss turned the England side around during the summer and had the boys bowling and fielding much better and batting more aggressively by the end of the summer- precisely what will be needed to win the Ashes. Ponting as a captain is fine when things are going well, but freezes when things go against him. Strauss showed in the Pakistan test series that he could turn the screw. Second, why on earth take Ashley Giles? He's not fit, hasn't played for a year and isn't likely to take many wickets in Australia even if he were on top form. If what was wanted was a reserve who could step in and bowl economically and bat in the bottom half, Dalrymple would have been a much better choice. Third, with Flintoff, Hoggard, Anderson and Harmison in doubtful shape, why take a fifth bowler who isn't fit? Surely the first requirement for the reserve fast bowler should have been match fitness. Lewis (if Hoggard is in the worst shape of the regular bowlers) or Broad should have gone in place of Plunkett.

I hope England will do well. If they do, it's because they will do what Vaughan did and put Ponting under pressure. The Aussies are getting old- half the side will be 35 or older. It's their last kick at the can. If the England 11 from 2005 were all fit, England would be clear favorites. As it is, this might have to be an opportunity for the England side to gain experience for the next series in 2009.

I will confess up front that I am an Australian and that may colour my opinion somewhat, but I'll try to maintain some level of realism.

England lost 4-1 when last they toured but they had wretched luck with two frontline bowlers succumbing to injury during tests. So 4-1 was not an accurate reflection of the relative strength of the two teams back then.

England have improved substantially since, as have Australia, but the gap between the two teams has narrowed appreciably.

England famously, and deservedly, won 2-1 last summer, but they had more than their fair share of good fortune along the way. Australia suffered some badly timed injuries to McGrath, were inflexible and unimaginative in their selection policy, and were generally complacent and uninspired. And it was still a close thing that could easily have gone the other way.

To me the key qustions and their answers are:

Is Australia the better team? Overall, even with fully fit rosters on both sides, I believe so. Will Ponting have learnt from his captaincy errors? I believe so. Will the selectors be as passive? I don't think so. Are Australia likely to underestimate their opposition the second time round? I very much doubt it.

In addition to all this I believe Australian familiarity with English conditions is far far greater than the converse.

All this being the case I don't think that it is unreasonable that the Australian players and management expect to win and win handily.

The great thing about sport of course, is that nothing is a foregone conclusion and the end result may surprise everyone.

But to be honest, the claims that the Australian players and management are being arrogant and overconfident seem a trifle strident to the point of desperation. If I were an English player or supporter I would be focusing on more tangible issues.

If we look on the positive side for England, I agree that in several areas we are a stronger side than that which won the Ashes last year. The middle order is more solid: Pietersen is no longer a debutant with a question-mark, Bell has been through the fire and emerged stronger, Cook has the temperament to suggest he could be a 'banker' and Collingwood, even if he doesn't play, has (off the top of my head) been the most consistent England batsman since the Ashes series. Last year Vaughan was in poor form for much of the series (remember the anguish over his technique when bowled for the second time at Edgbaston), Bell had a horror show and even Pietersen, come the Oval, was being told by Mike Atherton that he had to start producing.
Although S. Jones will be missed, it's also worth remembering how Anderson and him were on equal footing for a place in the team as recently as the preceding away series in South Africa. An attack of Panesar, Giles, Hoggard, Flintoff and Harmison does not have a bad look to it - especially since two spinners would contrast nicely and allow the quicks to rest in between spells. In this sense, the discovery of Panesar nullifies the loss of Jones. To stick with the bowling, the success of Hoggard, Jones and Flintoff rather overshadowed the mediocre return of Harmison after Lords. He never bowled a match-winning spell for England last summer - perhaps he will this winter.
Wicket-keeping. I'm a Jones apologist, if only because I think he allows Flintoff to bat at five down. Flintoff, Jones, Giles looks a lot better than Flintoff, Read, Mahmood. However, either way you cut it England now have competition for the place. Expect whichever wicket-keeper who scores runs in the warm-up(s) to be picked.
Finally, the captaincy. Everyone says Vaughan made the difference last time and he did. But this time the job is a different one. Last time Vaughan's job was to persuade the England players that they could beat Australia (a particulalry hard job after Lords). This time the captain doesn't need to persuade, he simply has to remind them that they can. And no-one will remind them better than the bloke who was at the centre of everything England did well last summer. I think his selection was a shrewd move. His tactics aren't as important - Fletcher will be hauling him off every half-hour for a loo-break to explain what to do next.
So to sum up, you could make a pretty convincing argument for why England are in as good a position as they were last summer.

As for the Aussies, looking at their line-up it makes me smile. I see Clarke, Martyn, Kasprovich and Gillespie have all been dropped and recalled (and dropped) since last summer. The number six spot seems to be causing them all sorts of problems (Clarke, Symonds, Watson), Langer and Hayden remain. The positives for them are the outstanding form of Ponting and the discovery of Hussey. The bowling attack reminds me of Spurs' strikeforce a few years ago when they were fielding Les Ferdinand (35 years old) and Teddy Sheringham (36 years old). McGrath won't play 5 tests, and I doubt Warne will either. So they could bring in MacGill except, oh yes, he's crocked his knee doing squat-thrusts with a jerry-can or whatever it was. Ponting's captaincy and Buchanan's coaching remain susceptible to incredulity and if they ever forget that, Warne (the best Australian captain Australia never had) is there to remind them.
Bring it on, I say.

It is interesting to read through the selection of comments from Aussies, Englanders and fans from the sub-continent. There are, of course, a kaleidoscope of views but most make reference to injuries; particularly injuries to key players. In recent times, as the athleticism required of first class players has increased, the number of serious, career threatening injuries has grown almost logarithmically. The Ashes is the highlight of the cricketing calendar and, over the last few years, this has deservedly been the case as we will unquestionably be watching the best two teams in the world go head to head. It is also unquestionable that the players involved will all be forcing themselves to the highest levels of fitness possible and Australia, with a great number of currently fit players will probably top the table on this count. This is not necessarily a good thing and will leave them at greater risk of break down over the series; particularly the older players. England have had more than their fair share of problems on the injury front and it has probably left them a little more cautious; as well as rested. I predict that there will be a greater number of breakdowns amongst the Aussies than in the England squad and then it will come down to who can call up the most test-ready players; here England have the edge.
So, if we can forget the likely disruptions caused by weather (climate change is impacting Australia as well as Europe) and politics (always influential in Australia based Ashes series) and set aside the luck involved in winning tosses, I guess this Ashes series is almost impossible to forecast, the most I’d say is that is unlikely to be drawn!

I'm an Aussie cricket supporter and a natural pessimist (born of my attachment to the team during the mid-80s). So I'll tell you why I think England might just sneak home from Australia with the urn in tow:

1) For the first time in 20 years, all of the selected batsmen can actually bat. Furthermore, most have that belief reinforced by runs against this opponent in 2005. England supporters need not worry about KP - he'll make 600 runs in the Ashes. His recent slump has everything to do with opposition that is uninspiring (to him) - rest assured that he'll rise to the occasion in Australia.

2) Reid and Panesar are good picks - Engalnd have finally realised that they need to pick blokes who are good at their primary job, notwithstanding perceived weaknesses in other areas. Did Jones/Giles ever really make enough runs to compensate for catches dropped/wickets not taken? Doubt it. Australia's reputation as a graveyard for finger-spinners is overstated - Panesar can go OK over here if he is well supported by pressure at the other end. Vettori has shown it can be done, and Murali's problems here have more to do with weak support bowling (and his own mental softness) than the pitches.

3) If England can break even early, the pressure will go onto the Australians. The Indians of 2003-04 are a good recent example of how things can happen for a side that stays in the contest long enough. People forget that India could have won that (drawn) series if they had wanted to - 7/705 dec. in the first innings of the final Test in Sydney was probably excessive and robbed them of the bowling time they needed (though the draw was sufficient to retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy). My nightmares feature a similar scenario in Sydney next January should the two sides enter the final Test with the series level!

Now, I hope I'm wrong, and that Australia regain the Ashes in 11 days playing time like last time (I never get sick of winning, and Australian supporters that do clearly did not take the regular humiliations of the mid-80s to heart!). But bring it on!

I am an Aussie- and I am an English Cricket fan- this makes me a pariah in every pub I go to in Sydney but I am a cricket follower first and enjoy the English brand..

No-one beats us on our bouncy tracks.. if we have a full pace bowling barrage (Johnson, Lee & McGrath & possible Bracken even Gillespse) then the ENgland openers will need to use their feet a lot more otherwise Australia will romp home..

England will need to put 100 on nearly every opening stand- and I think Strauss not Flintoff should be captain..

Panesar better watch out too- and Mahmood- there are young Aussie batsman sweating on being able to smash the new pommie bowlers everywhere..

Basically follow last Ashes script- keep total belief in yourselves and don't listen to the verbal abuse just move those feet and keep trying to hit the top of off stump- Aussie cricketers are intimidators not grinders- if England outgrind Australia then they will win..

And you will really miss Simon Jones he was the best you had- Flintoff and Harmison nowhere near as good..

Go the poms..

I must say I look at the Australian squad now & the Australian squad a year ago & believe every player in that squad has improved as well as new players presenting themselves as options should changes need to occur. Do the same with England & you could say there are some equally good new prospects such as Panesar & Cook but England are missing some key players while also others are not playing as well as they did then.

I look at England & Flintoff just seems overly relied on. He is a fantastic player no doubt but so many hopes are pinned on him doing everything, should he break down does anyone rate a flintoff-less England to even compete against Australia in Australia? As great as Ponting is, Australia would feel confident of playing well enough to win without him.

I do enjoy reading Englishmen feeling confident of victory because as they say, theres no disappointment without expectation...

All this talk about injuries, lack of fitness, missing players and poor form is just a smokescreen. Who cares what is happening to England. Nothing but a total obliteration of Englands touring side will satisfy the true Australian supporter after our latest so called defence of the ashes. The Australian players have the best grounds, the best coaches, they play in the best domestic competition and they are well paid, and they had better win. There is no room for any other result. Ricky,Shane,Glen, Michaels and possibly Adams hats are resting on it

The English bowling attack simply does not have enough fire power to bowl out Australia twice. Simple as that. Flintoff will bowl himself into the ground, Strauss is suffering a major dose of second year syndrome and Sajid Mahmood's inconsistency will see him flayed to all parts of the ground.

Australia have found new talet with Stuart Clark destroying South Africa in the republic and some other guy named Michael Hussey who averages over 70 in both forms of the game.

I do find it funny that Ponting's captaincy and Buchanan's coaching comes into question simply because they lost one series away from home out of the last 5 years or so. Australia underestimated England to their detriment and you can bet your bottom dollar that they wont do it again.

Australia 4 - 0 (one test washed out)

I agree with the comments from Michael, above. I am astonished to see suggestions that England's 2-1 victory last summer was due to luck more than anything else. It was frequently very tight indeed with several close finishes & the McGrath injury was rotten luck - but surely the test comes when a 2nd string bowler has to step in when injury occurs, and the strength in depth of the squad is put to the test. The Aussie bowling strength in depth wasn't up to it. They came with 16, not 11. (Look how many times our own county sustem has been criticised for not producing bowlers who can step up in an emergency and penetrate. This time it was the Aussies who over-relied on a player).

It tended to look close last year, with two fine sides going for each other's jugular right from the off, producing a great series. But in reality the teams weren't close - the gap between England & Australia was HUGE by the end and the Aussies' belwilderment showed it. Australia never saw it coming & were slow to react, the over confidence being a tits peak, naturally, after the 1st Test. England's 1st innings totals were consistently high, seldom failing to get over 400. They managed a 1st innings lead in ALL the Tests except in the Lord's defeat. They scored faster than the much vaunted Aussie batsmen. Had the equivalent of a whole day not been lost to rain at Old Trafford, it would have been 3-1, not 2-1; (not even an Aussie would claim that Lee & McGrath could have held on for 90 overs).

And clearest and most important of all, if you took away the monumental contribution made by the great Warne with both bat & ball, it would have been 4-1. I repeat: 4-1. Look again at his figures and performances and try to come up with an argument which denies this. It can't be done. England walloped Aussie last year & Warne held back the tide for as long as he could. Of course, Australia still have Warne, so once again it won't be 4-1, but it might if he doesn't produce the goods again or is sidelined for any reason.

Let's hope for another great series, and if we do go down I hope we take it on the chin as the Aussie players and people did, to their great credit, a year ago. Anything could happen - what about important injuries during the series, let alone the ones we already know about?

England 3-0 or 3-1.

I've had enough of this stuff about the fact that the series could have gone the other way last year. yes it was close in the end but the match at old trafford was only a draw because of the weather and a phenomenal display by Ponting and we took a big enough lead into the 4th innings at the oval for winning to have been a reall possibility. so although it could easily have been 2-1 to the aussies it could also have been 4-1 to the english.

my prediction for this year is that england just don't have enough, of anything, as a unit we're just not as tight as last time and i'm not confident. Australia to win 3-1

I agree with Chris's comments above. All the cards fell England's way last year, none more so than McGrath's injury at a crucial moment in the series. Which isn't to say that England didn't deserve the win. But on balance, Australia is clearly still the much stronger team. They've demolished every Test opponent before and (even more so) after last year's Ashes. McGrath and Warne may be old but they're still both lethal, and Ponting is in the sort of form that hasn't been seen in an England batsman for generations. It's hard to see England getting close unless they get a few lucky breaks again.

The bottom line is that, if things go England's way, they could scrape through 2-1 or perhaps 2-2 to retain the Ashes. If the injuries, coin tosses and marginal umpiring decisions are evenly spread between the two teams, Australia should win comfortably. But if say, Flintoff gets injured early and Ponting wins the important tosses, England could end up very bruised.

My Two Cents:

Well first i should clarify that I am an Indian but an avid Aussie fan.However while watching the DLF cup today and seeing Stuart Clarke being taken apart by Lara and company one thing crossed my mind that Aussies are vulnerable when under pressure. As Lara said they are beatable.

I believe that Aussies have a problem in the third seamer's role (not withstanding Johnson's exploits under helpful conditions and Clarke's wonderful debut).But despite this one weakness (though i have the feeling johnson/clarke might make me eat my words) Aussies are way too strong a team.

Looking at the English squad one cant help but have the feeling that this English team might get a hiding from the strong Aussie squad.
The English supporters may gloat over their bowling attack but bowlers like Mahmood,Plunkett,Anderson are not even test level bowlers to even think of even comparing with McGrath,Lee & Co. Hoggard's swing will be severely handicapped by pitches at Aus. The only bowlers who can rattle Australia are Flintoff, Harmison(Aussies may say he is Harmlessone but deep inside they know he has the capability to run through the vaunted batting order) and Panesar(with a big IF). It's a pity that Simon Jones is not here else he could've made a difference.

In batting the contest is more skewed. From Australia's side watch out for Hussey. He could be real dangerous. Ponting - Well no more praise required. Hayden coming back to life and Langer could still be a handful. If Clarke/Martyn fire in the middle order with Gilchrist waiting in the wings we could look at some huge aussie scores. For England apart from Pieterson and to a certain extent Strauss and Flintoff the English are highly vulnerable. But Asif's exploits could make the English skip some beat and Aussies rubbing their hands with glee. For Bell and Cook -Its entirely different scoring hundreds against a weakened pace attack coming at good position after a good start and entirely different from facing a quality attack right from the word go. Cook looked scratchy in parts and Bell wont have good memories of Aussies.

Being a neutral,i strongly wish English give some fight to Aussies to make it a competitive series. Else it could well be the familiar sight of the last decade and the half!

Look I'm English... Australia is by far and away the best team of the last 50 years. They have 3 of the best batsmen of the last 40 years (Ponting, Gilchrist & Hayden) and probably the 2 greatest bowlers of all time (McGrath and Warne). They will murder England. Australia have Ponting, Hayden & Hussey averaging over 50. Gilchrist and Langer thereabouts. Who do England have?

Australia have the calibre of Warne, McGrath and Lee over 1300 Test wickets between them and have astounding strike rates and averages. Who do England have? Look guys there's no debate okay. Yes England won last time but they where lucky enough to catch Australia on the hop. By the way guys it wont happen again for another 18 years. Australia 5-0. Did I mention the fact I'm English??

If McGrath stays fit throughout the series, Australia will win comfortably. I really think it's that simple. Australia's three best bowlers, McGrath, Lee and of course Warne are just too good. Ponting (Australia's best batsman since........Bradman?), Hayden and Hussey (and Gilchrist and Clarke and Langer) will make lots of runs and although some English players will put in some good performances, the Aussies are just too strong in every department.

Being an Australian, of course I am biased. I really admire the English team, and unlike some of my countrymen I will say that England fully deserved to win the 2005 series (in fact, 2-1 was flattering. 3-1 would have been a fairer result).

Australia to win the first two tests easily with McGrath cleaning up, England to come back to win a test and then Australia to win back the Ashes in the fourth. Australia 3-1 after the fourth test (weather permitting), with the dead rubber to follow.

The Best result possible for England I would have to say would be a 3 - 1 loss. Australia have improved since the last ashes and are starting to bring in some fresh players Hussey, Clark, who are playing as well as the good younger guys Tait, Johnson, Cullen and Jaques to go along with the usual faces who we all know. I think a big factor and it almost always is will be Warne. I think he will be even more deadly this year with the bounce and spin he will get at Brisbane, Adelaide and Sydney. Don't be suprised to see Australia go with two full time spinners and have Watson or Symonds as the third seamer as the English don't play the spinners to well. As for England I think Flintoff and possibly Harmison will be the only real threat in Englands bowling line up as they are the two that will get any real seam movement out here. Any type of swing won't be a much of a factor out here. As for the Aussies pace attack it will be intrsting to see how McGrath goes but I think he will be just has effective as he was at Lord's 18 months ago. Brett Lee has improved out of site since the ashes no more over stepping and also swinging the ball in the right places at 150 + kph. England are also slightly prone to collapse with the bat then Australia. Cook, Bell, Collingwod and possibly Pieterson will struggle with the bounce over here.

I think england can win the ashes but it depends on the fact that if the main players of england such as flintoff harmy hoggy or for the matter can tres. shrug off his emotional baggage or not but as far as s. clark is concerned the way he was hit for 87 runs by windies with all those fulltoses he bowled it is just wishful thinking to expect him to lead the bowling attack same can be said about magrath who doesnot look as good as he was in the past so i will say come on poms defeat this arrogant gloating whinging aussies

The reality is the aussies only need to improve 10-20% on last years performance to beat these guys, and to beat them well. Most of our side have about 80% up their sleeves on their woeful 2005 series. If they improve even just slightly, throw in Hussey and hopefully McGrath for all 5 tests, the home ground advantage, our traditional home favourtism by umpires... and this should be very one sided indeed. Especially considering this english side has already peaked. We just need to stay fit. History tells us since 2003 or whenever it was when england started to improve, they have barely won a test match when the opposition is at full strength - think SA without Pollock, Pakis without Shoaib, NZ without half their side, Australia without McGrath etc. etc.

wow i wouldn't be reading too much into clarks performance - thats his first outing since he bowled a handful of overs 4 or 5 months ago in bangladesh. it's difficult to find rhythm when you step into a ODI against an in form Gayle and Lara. clark > england's third seamer. i thought the same of him when he started in ODIs...but boy was I wrong once he hit the test arena. Give the boy some attacking fields and he takes wickets. Even last night he had a lot of regulation nicks fly away for 4.

I take the opinion that if it didn't rain in the third test australia would've won it comfortably. That was a good batting wicket - infact we only lost late wickets in that match because for a 5-10 over period we went for the win. Given the extra time Ponting, Clarke and the in form Warne would've done it in a canter. As it stands the second test was won after an incorrect umpires decision, the third because we lost a days play, the 4th because of ball tampering and the 5th because we dropped too many chances. That's the reality my friends.

I'm Australian, but unfortunately I'm not old enough to have seen the great Windies teams at their prime. (It's something I'll regret forever.) However it strikes me that that team was better than Australia now, and our current team certainly isn't as good as it was 5-10 years ago. And again, I've never seen Chappell, Harvey, Walters or anyone like that, but I have seen the Waughs, and regardless of averages they were both much better than Ponting. So Ponting is hardly the best since Bradman. And if McGrath and Warne the THE two best bowlers of all time, then this is the Twilight Zone.

Australia 3-1.

Firstly, I will admit I'm an ardent Australian fan, but I did enjoy last years series tremendously. It was good for cricket in general for England to win. I can't see it happening again I'm afraid.
I liken this series as similar to the Bledisloe Cup this year (Rugby, Aus v NZ). Australia got close on occasion, but in the end were still quite a way behind NZ. I see the same with England and Australia this summer. Regardless of fitness and leadership, though these are a major problems, I can't compare the two sides in any equal fashion.
I look at the differences from last winter- Australia has learnt (I hope) but more importantly, has an improved side. Hussey is fast shaping as one of the best players in world cricket and Australia has developed depth and competition in all positions. Jacques, Haddin, Watson and Johnson would likely be playing for any other world side.
I look at the England side and I see a couple of critical faults. First, the burden on Flintoff's shoulders. Have England not learned that captaincy and duties in the field and with the bat don't mix? How long is it since Alec Stewart was run down my the responsibilities he carried? Also, I don't see many in the England side with the ability to win, or even save a match. As Matt B kindly pointed out, Australia have won 11 of their past 12. The only time they have not won was against South Africa at the WACA, where Jacques Rudolph had the tenacity and technique to hold out Australia and Warne on the final day. In those other matches, no one was able to do this. Who can save a match for England, and who can win one consistently?
Thirdly, it has been mooted that the reason England won last time round was that they were finally able to take 20 Australian wickets. Can they this time? Surely there are major doubts. Has Hoggard taken any considerable amount of wickets in under three figure humidity levels or away from home? And no Jones this time, who is respected here in Australia only behind Flintoff for his performance last year. And Panesar. . . one series maketh the man? Vettori and Murali have struggled in Australia, and they are the two best finger spinners in world cricket. Australia will look to dominate Panesar early before he gets any real pitch assistance in Adelaide and Sydney.
England can draw, probably only 1-1. Far more likely I see a 3-1 win to Australia. I'm looking forward to being at the SCG and a good summer of cricket.

As Paul notes you can't read anything into the bowling performances of the Australian bowlers in this warm-up comp in Malaysia. It's just an early hit-out for the boys. By the time Nov 23rd rolls around they will be hitting their straps nicely. Personally, I think it's great that we've got a lot of Northern Hemisphere underestimation of what's in store.

Some people seemingly give Australian pride no credence at all in the equation. I think it's key. This team was stung so badly last year. I can not see how they would let that happen again, this time on home soil in front of their own people. It isn't very likely. Our motivation to win them back is far greater than the listless efforts England have shown since the Ashes. We will see the baggygreen fight tooth & nail to a man to see the ownership of the urn be a very fleeting English possession. England will fight hard, I'm certainly not suggesting that, but I do think they may out-gunned & out-gritted by a team hellbent on redemption in front of packed Aussie cricket grounds.

Another massive factor is Freddie. Far too much is being asked of Andrew Flintoff. That man has so much on his plate. He has broad shoulders, & he will need them. To bowl, bat, field & lead the side through the longest series in international cricket during what is shaping to be an extremely hot Australian summer....he is going to be one very tired man. Five tests of that in less than 6 weeks. Good luck Freddie. If he survives it, swab him!

come on donot gloat too much about watson with the test record he has he wouldnot get in to even a bangladeshi side as far as clark is concerned he might have played after 4 months and yes he bowled well against the springbroks but conditions suited him as well as africans had a weakened side so to judge him correctly one has to see how pathetically he performed against bangladesh on those flat wickets and even Lee has a bad record against english so the burden will be on magrath and warne but magrath doesnot look like the bowler of old so the only threat is warne but going by the recent evidence of how well english played against kumble and co. in india and won a test match as well and the way they destroyed kaneria in england so i will say poms can win the ashes especilly with the fact that hayden martyn are getting old and also even after ashes Gilly is struggling with just a century to show that too against b'desh so they have two class players presently they are ponting and hussey so if english have their best side on the park they will likely win

So according to Barath, McGrath is finished, Warne is tamed (?????) and Australia only have TWO class players? What the...?! My oh my you are in for a shock.

While calling Warne and McGrath the two best bowlers of all time (as someone, not me, did earlier) is certainly overdoing it, I think it's safe to say that they are two OF the greatest. Their records back that up. Warne the greatest spinner ever? I personally think he is, but even if you disagree, you would have to put him in the top two or three. The same with McGrath among fast bowlers (the top six or seven?).

If you were to pick the greatest team in cricket history, probably Bradman and Sobers would be the only automatic picks but Warne and McGrath would at least have to come into contention.

I earlier made the extravagant claim that Ponting was Australia's best bat since Bradman. Ok ok, so he has some pretty stiff competition in Harvey, G.Chappell, Border and S.Waugh, but my point is simply that on current form, nobody has been more prolific than Punter in terms of runs since...........well, you do the research. At the very least he is currently ranked the number one batsman in the world and he fully deserves that ranking.

Matthew Hayden is Australia's best opening batsman since.....Langer? Taylor? Lawry? Simpson? Morris? I think he's clearly better than all these players. The best since World War II? Anyone care to challenge that? Lots of runs for Haydos in the Ashes, I predict.

Brett Lee is now at his peak, or at least he's better now than he's ever been before, so I think the fact that he has a poor record against England is a moot point. He'll be a force in the Ashes, and I think we all know that.

Adam Gilchrist is the best keeper-batsman ever and a proven match winner (dare I say another "contender" for the best team in cricket history as keeper-batsman?). Yes, he had a shocker in the 2005 series, his first ever batting slump, but that won't happen again. Ok maybe I'm wrong and he's just too old now and is finished, but I think that's not true and that he's simply too good to be dominated like that again. At least one match-turning innings from Gilly this Ashes series. The Flinoff/Gilchrist duel should be a peach.

The third seamer position in the Aussie team is up for grabs but is it a weak link? Gillespie looks finished based on his poor performances recently for Yorkshire, but the selectors can choose between Clark, Johnson, Tait and Bracken. For me, I'd like to see Johnson given a crack at it. Or if Watson plays at six, MacGill can slot in at ten instead on the more spinner-friendly tracks.

The middle order is unsettled. Damien Martyn has been a good servant for Australian cricket, but he now gives the impression of someone who can't be trusted. Soft dismissals and a tendency to self-destuct under pressure mean that for me Michael Clarke should be given the number four spot. He is, after all, "the future of Australian cricket".

Phil Jaques virtually demands a spot but I can't see the selectors forcing Langer out until the end of the Ashes (barring very poor form).

My Australian team: Hayden, Langer/Jaques, Ponting, Clarke, Hussey, Watson, Gilchrist, Warne, Lee, Johnson/MacGill, McGrath.

Do you think this team will lose at home when each player in the team, including Warne and McGrath, regard it as the most important test series they will ever play in? No chance.

I mean no disrespect to the England team, who I think are a talented and capable unit, but I think that in a couple of months time we will all see just how good this truly great Australian team is. Australia to win easily in a spectacular series. And I can't wait.

I think the english are forgetting that they won the ashes 2-1. There two victories came in nail bitting finishes over an Australian side who looked shell shocked. The difference this time around will be as follows.
1.Australia will not be ambushed twice.
2.In Austrailia we have real cricket grounds, not little ovals you can flick six off your padds.
3.Flintof & co will not be able to bowl extended spells of reverse swing when it is 42 deg C and dry as a nuns nasty.
4. We now have Mr Cricket (M Hussey)

Ah it's good to see the english confident again. It makes it even more enjoyable when we take back what is rightfully ours. However it won't be a whitewash and it definitely won't be easy. But as all australians have known this from the moment we lost them last year to suggest that we're getting complacent again is ridiculous. Cocky, definitely. We're a cocky nation when it comes to sport. But complacent? I don't think so. Ever since the most exciting test series in recent memory was lost to the old enemy we've been gearing up for this. And while the english have struggled at times with a post ashes hangover, the aussies have been planning for it meticulously, with every subsequent series serving as another challenge in order to be ready. On top of that the lack of depth and experience that was exposed in the last ashes has been addressed with exposure to international cricket for Mitchell Johnson, Mark Cosgrove etc. Michael Clarke has become more patient and his talent is undeniable. Clarke and Pietersen are in a position to stamp their authority on cricket and move from players with potential to bona fide stars of the game.

Australia 2-1

However it will be Australia 5-0 if the english don'trealise a few things. Panesar over Giles. C'mon people, Panesar is a rare breed of player and should not be dropped in favour of an aging pie chucker like Giles. He might be able to tie up one end but with swing not being as much of a factor in australia tying up one end won't be good enough. Panesar will benefit greatly from the extra bounce in the Aussie pitches.

Leave the focus on swing bowling in England. Australia is not a swing friendly country. The pitches are harder and fster. Jones and Hoggard would be handy to have but Harmison, Flintoff and Mahmood should be much more influential this time around especially if Panesar is rightly selected as the spinner.

Protect Trescothick. Everyone knows about his fragile mental state and he will cop his fair share of abuse. It might even be a good idea to leave him out of he side. Cook, Pietersen etc are hard headed youngsters with loads of talent. They have what it takes to survive an Australian summer. If Tres shows any signs of weakness on the tour, the Australian players and fans will be merciless.

Read over Jones. With the batting depth in the lineup it makes much more sense to go witha specialist keeper who can bat a bit. Some of the aussie pitches can be unpredictable at times and a solid keeper will be required.

If this isn't as exciting a series as the last ashes i'd be very surprised but this time round the English just won't have enough.

I think some Aussies posting in here need a reality check:

- Apart from McGrath and Warne there is not a really someone who at the moment can be considered a major threat. Lee has a poor record against England. Johnson may have talent, but what has he proven so far? Clark has taken wickets against a poor SA side. English batting line-up is much stronger than SA. I think one guy who can be the third strike bowler is Stewart Mcgill, but will he get a game?

- Aussie batting line-up is not an unstoppable force that it once was. Hayden recovered from the Ashes nightmare, but has he faced any quality attacks since then? Pointing and Hussey are absolutely awesome, but you wouldnt say that any other batsmen are primed to destroy English bowling attack. Big problem at number 6. All in all there are question marks.

- Do not underestimate the depth of English squad. Jones is out, but the wildcard could be James Anderson, the guy is very talented and if he gets it together, he can take wickets. Then again he could get carted all over. Mahmood is wayward, I think he will struggle, unless he gets it right at the Gabba, the conditions there should suit him. Panesar is top quality, anyone who has seen him bowl will testify to that, he may not destroy the Aussie batting line up, but I can not see him taken to the cleaners, he is too good for that. As for batting, Cook is a big big talent, and the form of their batting line up has been very good (apart from Tres)

-Aussies won 11 of 12 playing against weak opposition, England had top class opponents in India and Pakistan. Yes Pakistan had key players missing with injuries, but so did England (Jones, Flintoff, Vaughan). So I would not read too much into recent form.

All i want to say is that there are a lot of ifs for both sides. Aussies are not what they were few years back, I think huge responsibility will be on McGrath, Warne, Pointing and Hussey, they have to perform. Similar questions exist for England, but I have no doubt that they will put up a fight, and it will not be easy for Aussies.

My guess is 2-1 to Aussies, but I would not discount a possibility of a draw or an English win.

Reasons to be cheerful:
Let me think................
Monty Panesar, Alastair Cook and Ian Bell.
Monty is now a hero amongst English cricket. He is a potential match winner and no matter how much ribbing he gets from the Aussies, they'll be laughing on the other side of their faces when he gets them out.
Cook is just a natural England player. He doesn't do the fancy stuff, nor does he pretend to be something he's not but he's good and will score runs.
Bell-looked down and out last September but is now older and a hell of a lot wiser.

Another point-England are learning to play without key players. Without Warne, Ponting and McGrath, Australia would be hopeless.

England actually won the last Ashes series and will be prepared to do it all over again.

The future-Stuart Broad, Cook, Dalrymple, Bell, Monty....England are on fire and will continue to dominate.

I am enjoying seeing how readily a lot of the typically arrogant and gloating English or neutral posters here write off the abilities of some of the new and younger Aussie players.

The big criticism of Stuark Clark: SA arent't very good. So what? How does that translate to him being no threat at all to England? Success against weaker opposition does not mean complete inability to succeed against stronger opposition.

"Johnson may have talent, but what has he proven so far?" Well, before the last Ashes I would have said exactly the same about Flintoff, Pietersen, Simon Jones....

Same goes for the comments that no one in Australia can score runs of any significance against any of the England bowlers ever, apart from Ponting and Hussey, or some such nonsense. I will get on my knees and pray that you all fervently hold to these beliefs until the start of the series. Then I will wish I had a webcam trained on your faces.....

It may be trite, but clearly not well understood: no-one sets the world on fire until the day you do.

In spite of all of the talk that this series will be about 'how will Australia's ageing team cope', I think that at least two of the newer Aussie players will announce their arrival by making their mark on this series. While the Enlish have their eyes trained on the usual suspect, you will not see it coming.

The fact that they a player is underestimated and unheralded doesn't actually stop that player destroying you. THAT is the reality check.

Gee whiz I sometimes wonder whether my countrymen watch the same games I do.
England a slow and boring batting team? Not after I had to sit and watch them club us all over the park and score 407 in a day! When was the last time we did that against quality opposition? And they scored consistently quickly all summer
Aussie lost because we dropped catches at crucial times? Absolute poppycock! As a fan of the aussie team my whole life the way I saw it was that England strangled our top order batsmen with quality bowling and beat us at our own game of intimidating the bowler with bat in hand. Yes we missed McGrath in the matches he didn't play but to use that as an excuse as to why we lost suggests we are a one (or 2 - Warne) man team. For once I'd appreciate if the bulk of aussie supporters could get the chip off their shoulders, ditch the superiority complex and give credit where credit is due. We were fair dinkum outplayed by the Poms - no excuses.

Many English fans believe that without Warne, Ponting and McGrath Australia have no chance. The basis of the rotation system is so that they give all players a go. In malaysia the Aussies went without Gilchrist, Hussey recently captained the Aussies instead of Ponting. Australia won the world cup, Warne wasn't there. England win the Ashes once. Australia won the Ashes eight times in a row. England keep banging on about their wins against pakistan and WI well, not many people mention the series against Sri Lanka. Sorry to be a fuddy duddy to all you english supporters but you are not on fire, you have never dominated and there is nothing for you to be happy about when half of your selected side is out injured.

Jones a journeyman? Work on your terminology Tim - he has only had one club.

Those predicting an England victory in Australia are very bold, and those predicting a victory by any margin greater than 2-1 make me laugh! I moved to Australia in 1989, and have watched Australia play in no less than 30 series at home in that time, and seen then lose only once (2-1 to the West Indies in 92-93 in a very, very close series), since then (14 years) I've never seen them even look like losing a series, with many series (including all 4 against England) being thrashings where the opposition were hopelessly outclassed and unable to handle the harsh Australian conditions. In 22 of the 30 test series I've watched Australia play at home, the opposition hasn't won a single test, and when the opposition does manage a win, usually it's in a dead rubber (at least 2 England dead rubber wins spring to mind).

The other thing that made me laugh is the constant and ill-informed criticism of Ponting's captaincy. I don't think he is the greatest captain ever (and I certainly don't think Vaughan is either) but Ponting does happen to have the greatest captaincy record ever. At the moment his winning percentage is higher than any captain in test cricket history. Not bad for someone who apparently isn't a good captain with a team in decline.

And Australia can't win without Ponting or Warne or Mcgrath? Has anyone who said that actually been watching test or one day cricket for the last little while? Mcgrath has had several long spells out of test cricket (not just his last 9 months time out), Warne is retired from one day cricket and has had several summers off tests with operations (not to mention his 1 year ban, oops!) and Ponting has missed several tours - including one to India. What happened in all those times? Australia not only got by, but continued to dominate and won emphatically without those players - for example the world cup without Warne, the series in India without Ponting, and any one of half a dozen series without McGrath.

I know last Ashes series was a special win, but those who make predictions really need to get their heads out of the sand before they speak! A lot has happened in a year!

Australia 4-0 (no, actually, 3-1… England will win a dead rubber).

Chris

I'm one of those who doesn't approve of Ponting's captaincy, and I'll tell you why; he cracks under pressure. Look at the DLF Cup, as soon as Gayle and Chanderpaul started attacking he scattered the field and chewed his cuticles like no one else. That's just one example. Also he relies too much on Warne and McGrath (or whoever his main bowlers happen to be) which makes him terribly inflexible. Look at the WACA test against RSA, when he refused to bowl Symonds over Warne, who wasn't doing much, or that Jo'burg game, when he continually bowled Lewis at the expense of Symonds again.

No matter what percentages say, I don't see that as ill-informed at all.

I think Chris and Marcus are both right. As captain, Ponting isn't a great tactical leader. But he is also, at least statistically, the most successful captain in the history of Test cricket. The two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

Indeed I'd suggest that Ponting's amazing record just underlines the incredible talent he has at his disposal. Despite a very serious stumble in England last year, this is still a mighty Australian team. It has two of the best bowlers in history, probably the second-best opening partership in history, the best wicketkeeper-batsman in history, and the number one batsman in the world today. A drover's dog could captain a team like that.

Australia havent 'looked like losing at home in 14 years'? really?? what exactly was happening in 2003/4 when tendulkar and co completely ruffled the aussies- not to mention gilly saying- 'we couldnt find a way of getting them out'. aussies were hanging on for a famous draw which still saw india retain the border-gavaskar trophy. also aussies didnt win in india for 35 odd years and ponting never played because his record there stinks- he took more catches than scored runs in the last series he played there. aussies were desperate to beat india and regain the trophy and only ended up bringing the pressure back on to themselves. england are in a similar position- remember a draw suits england not australia.

Marvellous to see such a super amount of interest. And that's the really great thing that this summer is bringing. All because Australia actually lost for once. It's an old saying that a strong English side is important for world cricket and the interest in this summer certainly backs that up.

Lets just hope that England are fit and bring their best to the series. They will need to play at their very best, but if they do, it should be a great series.

Having watched a lot of cricket involving both Australia and England, I must say that it's very hard to see a scenario whereby England have Australia's backs to the wall during the coming series.

Australia were clearly rattled by the loss of McGrath in 2005, and I feel his presence in the team would have meant that Aus would have won the last series.

The English have a very good side but they have the following issues:

1. Cook has a few technical flaws which have already been exposed by lesser bowlers

2. Flintoff may struggle to score runs given the pressure of being a frontline bowler and captaining

3. Monty will find it hard to settle against players like Ponting and Clarke, who have quick feet and can hit the ball cleanly

3-1 to Aus

This might me off topic, but I do think the Aussies are getting softer by the day more so with Ponting(with all respect to his talent as a batsmen) as the captain. I have always known the Aussie captains to be nasty,tough leaders who did not tolerate nonsense from the opposition. Infact they would even go to the extent of picking up a fight with a comment or something just to let the Englishmen know that they meant business.
Lately we see brett lee smiling at batsmen, hugging the opposition. Ponting having nothing but good opinions about the opposition. Shane warne socializing with pieterson.
I could never imagine an Ian chappell or a Steve waugh or a Border or a Dennis lillee ever do that.
Is this why Aussies have been winning the Ashes??Need not be, but there was a certain mystery,a toughness associated with them which could sometimes irritate an oppostion.