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« How far ahead is the top one - part II | What's a reasonable winning score in ODIs? »
October 26, 2009Posted by Anantha Narayanan on 10/26/2009 in Tests - bowling
Analysing bowlers in Test wins
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The reason is very simple and fundamental. Look at the following two Tests.
In 1932, Australia scored 153 runs in the match and WON.
South Africa:36 & 45.
Australia: 153.
In 1921, England scored 817 runs in the match and LOST.
Australia: 354 & 582.
England: 447 & 370.
The common thread running through these two extreme matches is that the winning team captured 20 wickets. This is the mandatory requirement of all wins, barring a few matches in which there might have been declarations or retired-hurt situations.
This time I have done a table of the top 25 for each of these analysis and a single team-based table, listing only the top-10 for each team. The full table is available through a link.
The criteria is simple. The bowler should have been involved in a minimum of 10 wins and captured over 100 wickets in their career.
1. Top 25 bowlers based on % of team wickets in wins
No Cty Bowler Mat Wins Wkts Wkts %-of-Wkts
Own Team
1.Eng Barnes S.F 27 13 115 260 44.23
2.Slk Muralitharan M 129 53 430 1060 40.57
3.Nzl Hadlee R.J 86 22 173 440 39.32
4.Aus Grimmett C.V 37 20 143 400 35.75
5.Ind Chandrasekhar B.S 58 14 98 276 35.71
6.Saf Steyn D.W 33 18 124 360 34.44
7.Saf Tayfield H.J 37 11 74 220 33.64
8.Ind Kumble A 132 43 284 860 33.02
9.Aus Lillee D.K 70 31 203 618 32.80
10.Aus O'Reilly W.J 27 14 91 279 32.61
11.Eng Fraser A.R.C 46 12 78 240 32.50
12.Eng Peel R 20 12 78 240 32.50
13.Eng Lohmann G.A 18 15 94 300 31.33
14.Aus McKenzie G.D 60 18 112 360 31.11
15.Eng Gough D 58 18 105 342 30.83
16.Pak Imran Khan 88 26 155 520 29.81
17.Win Marshall M.D 81 43 254 857 29.62
18.Win Ramadhin S 43 13 76 260 29.23
19.Ind Bedi B.S 67 17 97 336 28.90
20.Win Croft C.E.H 27 10 57 200 28.50
21.Pak Waqar Younis 87 39 222 780 28.46
22.Saf Donald A.A 72 33 187 660 28.33
23.Eng Caddick A.R 62 21 114 402 28.27
24.Aus Davidson A.K 44 16 89 320 27.81
25.Aus Trumble H 32 14 77 280 27.50
Let us give Barnes his place at the top. That is to be expected, considering that he captured 7 wickets per Test which became nearly 9 per Test in won matches. Muralitharan and Hadlee's high +-40% is to be expected considering that they were the leading bowlers for their respectiove teams, by a wide margin. Grimmett is also to be expected. This single position is also enough to show the contribution that Chandrasekhar has made for Indian cricket. Steyn is fast emerging as one of the great bowlers. Then come the two great spinners, Tayfield and Kumble. Lillee's 6.5 wickets per Test for a strong Australia is a revelation. The top-10 is rounded off by O'Reilly, the other great leg spinner of the 1920s.
The top-10 has 6 spinners. Also 6 modern bowlers appear in these positions.
To view the complete list, please click here.
2. Top 5 bowlers for each country based on % of team wickets in wins
Cty Bowler Mat Wins Wkts Wkts %-of-Wkts
Own Team
Aus Grimmett C.V 37 20 143 400 35.75
Aus Lillee D.K 70 31 203 618 32.80
Aus O'Reilly W.J 27 14 91 279 32.61
Aus McKenzie G.D 60 18 112 360 31.11
Aus Davidson A.K 44 16 89 320 27.81
...
Eng Barnes S.F 27 13 115 260 44.23
Eng Fraser A.R.C 46 12 78 240 32.50
Eng Peel R 20 12 78 240 32.50
Eng Lohmann G.A 18 15 94 300 31.33
Eng Gough D 58 18 105 342 30.83
...
Ind Chandrasekhar B.S 58 14 98 276 35.71
Ind Kumble A 132 43 284 860 33.02
Ind Bedi B.S 67 17 97 336 28.90
Ind Harbhajan Singh 77 31 168 619 27.13
Ind Prasanna E.A.S 49 15 81 300 27.00
...
Nzl Hadlee R.J 86 22 173 440 39.32
Nzl Martin C.S 50 12 59 240 24.58
Nzl Cairns C.L 62 16 76 320 23.75
Nzl Chatfield E.J 43 12 52 240 21.67
Nzl Cairns B.L 43 12 48 240 20.00
...
Pak Imran Khan 88 26 155 520 29.81
Pak Waqar Younis 87 39 222 780 28.46
Pak Wasim Akram 104 41 211 820 25.73
Pak Danish Kaneria 54 21 108 420 25.71
Pak Shoaib Akhtar 46 20 99 400 24.75
...
Saf Steyn D.W 33 18 124 360 34.44
Saf Tayfield H.J 37 11 74 220 33.64
Saf Donald A.A 72 33 187 660 28.33
Saf Ntini M 99 50 233 1000 23.30
Saf Pollock P.M 28 10 46 200 23.00
...
Slk Muralitharan M 129 53 430 1060 40.57
Slk Vaas WPUJC 111 43 166 860 19.30
...
Win Marshall M.D 81 43 254 857 29.62
Win Ramadhin S 43 13 76 260 29.23
Win Croft C.E.H 27 10 57 200 28.50
Win Roberts A.M.E 47 21 110 420 26.19
Win Ambrose C.E.L 98 44 229 878 26.12
The list is elf-explanatory. The Indian top-5 are all spinners. Quite surprising is the presence of Ramadhin amongst great West Indian fast bowlers and the very high placing of Fraser, McKenzie and Kaneria.
To view the complete list, please click here.
3. Top 25 bowlers based on Ratio of bowling average in wins
No Cty Bowler Wkts <-Wins Bow Avge-> Ratio
Team Own Others
1.Eng Fraser A.R.C 78 24.20 16.53 27.90 1.69
2.Nzl Hadlee R.J 173 18.38 13.07 21.82 1.67
3.Pak Imran Khan 155 20.16 14.50 22.56 1.56
4.Eng Barnes S.F 115 17.71 13.58 20.98 1.54
5.Slk Muralitharan M 430 20.57 16.04 23.66 1.47
6.Saf Steyn D.W 124 21.33 16.68 23.77 1.43
7.Pak Shoaib Akhtar 99 21.78 17.52 23.19 1.32
8.Eng Briggs J 84 16.01 13.01 16.86 1.30
9.Aus Davidson A.K 89 19.52 16.04 20.86 1.30
10.Aus McKenzie G.D 112 23.47 19.49 25.27 1.30
11.Eng Underwood D.L 123 18.65 15.19 19.67 1.30
12.Aus O'Reilly W.J 91 17.84 14.96 19.23 1.29
13.Aus Lillee D.K 203 21.56 18.27 23.18 1.27
14.Win Gibbs L.R 154 22.93 19.17 24.23 1.26
15.Saf Goddard T.L 47 23.03 19.09 24.10 1.26
16.Eng Verity H 71 20.01 16.65 20.97 1.26
17.Eng Lohmann G.A 94 11.21 9.67 11.91 1.23
18.Ind Pathan I.K 66 23.70 20.26 24.88 1.23
19.Eng Peel R 78 16.97 14.67 18.07 1.23
20.Aus Grimmett C.V 143 19.99 17.60 21.32 1.21
21.Aus Trumble H 77 20.79 18.00 21.85 1.21
22.Eng Bedser A.V 74 20.09 17.54 21.04 1.20
23.Ind Kumble A 284 21.18 18.71 22.40 1.20
24.Saf Pollock P.M 46 22.86 19.83 23.77 1.20
25.Win Croft C.E.H 57 19.39 17.12 20.29 1.18
I have ordered this table on the ratio of own wickets average to other bowlers wicket average in won matches. Fraser is on top having outr=performed his peers in won matches by 69%. I am not able to expplain this other than possibly the relatively weaker English attacks. Hadlee is next. However note the stunning contributions made by Imran Khan in their wins, over 55% better. Muralitharan, is next. Shoaib Akhtar comes into the top-10 as also the great left arm fast bowler, davidson.
Note the low averages by the concerned bowlers in wins. No doubt these figures would be influenced, partly, by the outstanding analysis against weaker teams. But neither Fraser nor Hadlee had one easy match in their careers.
To view the complete list, please click here.
4. Top 5 bowlers for each country based on Ratio of bowling average in wins
Cty Bowler Wkts <-Wins Bow Avge-> Ratio
Wins Team Own Others
Aus Davidson A.K 89 19.52 16.04 20.86 1.30
Aus McKenzie G.D 112 23.47 19.49 25.27 1.30
Aus O'Reilly W.J 91 17.84 14.96 19.23 1.29
Aus Lillee D.K 203 21.56 18.27 23.18 1.27
Aus Grimmett C.V 143 19.99 17.60 21.32 1.21
...
Eng Fraser A.R.C 78 24.20 16.53 27.90 1.69
Eng Barnes S.F 115 17.71 13.58 20.98 1.54
Eng Briggs J 84 16.01 13.01 16.86 1.30
Eng Underwood D.L 123 18.65 15.19 19.67 1.30
Eng Verity H 71 20.01 16.65 20.97 1.26
...
Ind Pathan I.K 66 23.70 20.26 24.88 1.23
Ind Kumble A 284 21.18 18.71 22.40 1.20
Ind Bedi B.S 97 19.43 17.66 20.14 1.14
Ind Chandrasekhar B.S 98 20.83 19.28 21.69 1.13
Ind Prasanna E.A.S 81 19.04 17.62 19.57 1.11
...
Nzl Hadlee R.J 173 18.38 13.07 21.82 1.67
Nzl Cairns C.L 76 21.35 20.20 21.70 1.07
Nzl Bracewell J.G 35 19.54 19.29 19.59 1.02
Nzl Chatfield E.J 52 18.39 19.00 18.22 0.96
Nzl Vettori D.L 109 19.07 21.40 18.52 0.87
...
Pak Imran Khan 155 20.16 14.50 22.56 1.56
Pak Shoaib Akhtar 99 21.78 17.52 23.19 1.32
Pak Waqar Younis 222 19.84 18.21 20.49 1.13
Pak Sarfraz Nawaz 75 21.47 20.52 21.76 1.06
Pak Wasim Akram 211 18.63 18.49 18.68 1.01
...
Saf Steyn D.W 124 21.33 16.68 23.77 1.43
Saf Goddard T.L 47 23.03 19.09 24.10 1.26
Saf Pollock P.M 46 22.86 19.83 23.77 1.20
Saf Tayfield H.J 74 20.98 18.85 22.05 1.17
Saf Donald A.A 187 18.77 16.80 19.56 1.16
...
Slk Muralitharan M 430 20.57 16.04 23.66 1.47
Slk Vaas WPUJC 166 20.20 22.64 19.62 0.87
...
Win Gibbs L.R 154 22.93 19.17 24.23 1.26
Win Croft C.E.H 57 19.39 17.12 20.29 1.18
Win Marshall M.D 254 18.70 16.79 19.50 1.16
Win Ambrose C.E.L 229 18.66 16.86 19.29 1.14
Win Ramadhin S 76 19.08 17.80 19.61 1.10
The table is self-explanatory. Note the vast difference between Muralitharan, Hadlee and their support bowlers. Also Gibbs leads the West Indian list.
To view the complete list, please click here.
Yet to absorb this analysis - but first comments - no Warne or Mcgrath - wow :)
[[
Aditya
It is not that McGrath and Warne are not there. McGrath is in fact in the 7th position. Warne lower down. They are not in the top-5, that is all.
Ananth:
]]
Shouldn't run outs also be excluded? The wicket didn't got to any bowler, no different then retired hurt or innings declared.
The list of ratio of bowling averages is very useful. Look at top 5 for each country and you can figure out the best period for that country.(except for warne/mcgrath)
Also one look at the ratio of spinners/pacers and you get pretty good picture of each coutry's strength
3 bowlers below ratio of 1.Just good bowlers with decent bowlers as teammates.Wonder if 1 should be the cut off for the list
Nzl Chatfield E.J 0.96
Slk Vaas WPUJC 0.87
Nzl Vettori D.L 0.87
[[
Goel,
I did not specifically exclude run-outs since I wanted to work on 20 wickets (or thereabouts) per match as the key factor. Also it does not really matter. The bowlers' share would be slightly higher.
Ananth:
]]
Nice compilation here Ananth. Well Done.
I commend you on another good article, Ananth. Looking at tables 1&3 together Barnes Hadlee and Imran indeed deserve their places. Then there are bowlers such as Lohmann, Marshall, Donald, and Ambrose who have a very low avg in wins but so do their bowling mates, hence their lower ratios.
I feel there needs to be a measure combining the bowlers own avg in wins (not ratio) AND %wickets.
Another important measure that could be inserted is the ratio of the bowlers career (or career to date) avg to his avg in wins. This will show how much he raises his game in victories.
A good bowling team usually restricts the opposition in the first bowling innings thereby bowling to a smaller total in the 2nd inning too. So the avg. tends to be lower esp in the 2nd innings.
Any thoughts?
you have done a great job, i expect some thing more than this and some exiting stuff from you to keep up the pace. i firstly thank you all working for the cause.
i have a question to ask you, who are the cricketers contributed most for their teams to win most matches? and players with better vinning records?
why the world always forget the efforts of the sheet anchors?
do you feel that the greates players always collect records at the expence of their team? why the performence of the minnows was, is and would not be recognized in the media?
whom you rate the best cricketer in the world? a batsman, a bowler, an allrounder or a wicket keaper? asses and analyze the fact or fiction regarding this one with your finest men/women in the business? keep this in terms of over all performence in tests odis and tnts as well.
my last but not least request is for the version of cricket for the disabled visually challenged?
What you did not factor in was the fact that the great West Indian team in the 80's had so many wicket taking bowlers that most times a particular only got one spell. Therefore, the wickets was always shared rather than one bowler getting the lion share. Another factor you should factor in is that Richard Hadlee was NZ only strike bowler who carried his team on his back literally- and yet while his tally of wicket was high, his team winning ratio was small. So then I ask the question: Was Hadlee not a match winner? And how about Roberts,Holding, Garner, Walsh, and Bishop, were they not match winners too? The Big question for you is to ask yourself which these bowlers would you as a captain like to have in your team. Think about that, and maybe you will realize that statistics like what you have presented don't always tell the whole story.
[[
Angus
These facts are presented without conclusions or selections or profound pronouncements. These are simple tables which are presented for readers to draw their own conclusions and gain better insight. Like the fact that McGrath and Warne did not stand that high as individual bowlers but were great as a pair.
So draw your own conclusions. The factoring in and other nuances have been done in about 50 previous analyses. Every analysis need not contain all the fine tuning.
Ananth:
]]
Surprising results. I would never have expected Warne and Glenn McGrath to be absent from the Australian list of match winning bowlers. Maybe its the combination that worked.
Hi Anath,
Great job and good thought process. Your introduction to the article has popped up a few possible future analyses...Which team took the least wickets to win a test(minimum should be 10 assuming no retired hurts)2. Overall which team (may be decade wise) have taken the least & most wickets and runs for their victories....consider these analysis so that we can see the relative strength of bowling and batting of each team in each decade....
[[
Sesha
Your mail has given me an idea that I should, once in a while, do an article presenting a collection of snippets like the ones you have mentioned, which are not big enough to fill an entire article but deserve a paragraph or two.
Thanks
Ananth:
]]
Interesting analysis. As with the similar batting analysis this also indicates the mediocrity of the rest of the bowlers in the team…considering that the likes of Murali, Hadlee, Kumble have high percentages. Also, considering that all the top Indian bowlers are spinners, just goes to show how pathetic a bowling unit India was till a few years back.Steyn is a bit of a surprise, but these are relatively early days for him…and he will require to play at least twice the number of matches more in both formats ( maintaining his standards) before we can fairly compare him to the legends. Lillee, my all time favourite bowler, is the biggest and most pleasant surprise!! Much like Tendulkar, the way he came back from injury (doctors told Lillee he may never walk again, never mind bowl)-strengthening his body, restructuring and remodeling his entire bowling action and technique and STILL being able to perform at the highest level…Talent, brute force of will, bloody minded toughness…the Ultimate fast bowler. Love it when some entirely unexpected stats and analysis reinforce some old notions!
@aditya jha…again goes to show the depth of the Aus team!! Blasphemy though it may seem, I would wager that even without McGrath the Aus team would have done as well. They have always produced quality quicks. Warney would have been much more difficult to replace.
[[
Abhi
As I had explained to Angus, in many of the analysis I let the readers draw their own conclusions. They are, of course, free to share their views with other readers. McGrath/Warne and the great West Indian fast bowlers would not figure at the top in such an analysis since they necessarily had to share the spoils. In no way does this lower their greatness an iota. In their own diffrerent ways, Warne, Murali and Kumble share the pedestal.
An aside. Can you send in a comment with a mailid through which I can reach you. Your current id seems to be a dummy one and bounces mails. The mailid will remain confidential with me.
Ananth:
]]
In order for a bowler to do well in this measure he needs to meet at least three of the following criteria:
1 The bowler was very good
2 He had the ability to bowl long spells
3 He was utilized to his optimal capacity
4 The conditions generally suited his style of bowling
5 The other bowlers in his team were fairly weak
6 The opposition batsmen were generally below average
7 The statistical depth is insufficient
Barnes ticks boxes 2 to 7; Murali boxes 1 to 6; and Hadlee boxes 1, 3 and 5. That is why they are at the top of the list.
Roberts, Holding, Marshall and Garner only meet the first criteria and are therefore not high on the list.
[[
Deon
I am not saying that I agree with all your conclusions. However the idea , subjective though it is, is very nice.
Kumble is probably 1 to 4. Warne, 1 to 3 and so on.
In defence of Barnes, let me suggest that either any 3 or 2-7 should do.
Ananth:
]]
Ananth - congratulations on a top class article. One suggestion: in the long run (cut-off of, say, 40 wins), normal distribution may be expected to figure in somehow. Your columns give the mean values ... could you pls consider adding a column on variance? Thanks.
Ananth-
Very stimulating analysis. It started me thinking in different ways. Not surprisingly perhaps, in the top five by %-age of wickets, Hadlee, Barnes and Muralitharan are way ahead of the second bowler for their respective countries. I also notice that among the top five WI bowlers by % of wickets, the spread is the least ~3.5%. Interesting also to find Ramadhin in the top five ! Moreover, other than Ramadhin the careers of the other WI bowlers overlapped quite a bit when WI were the dominant force. Also, the %-spread among the top five Pakistan bowlers is 5% (least after WI). Interestingly, both Ramadhin and Kaneria are spinners while rest of top five in respective teams are fast bowlers. For both WI and Pak these fast bowlers had overlapping careers with their other team-mates in the top five %-age of wickets list. Intriguing stuff !
Ananth: thanks for taking the suggestion. But obvious that it wouldn't make any difference when all denominators are same.
No further comments on this article as the idea is same.
Waiting for the batting analysis ....
Hello sir, refreshing article as always.
Is it possible for you to do an analysis on captains. To analyse which captains brought out the best in their players for instance dravid averaged about 71 under ganguly which is 19 more than his career mean and kumble averaged 24 with the ball under azhar which is 5 less than his career mean. Any chance of an analysis under these aspects. Am sorry if it sounds tedious. thanks
[[
Ashwath
Captains' analysis has been done already. Pl look at earlier articles.
Ananth:
]]
good to see grimmett there in the top of aussie lists.a forgotten genius.
warne&mcgrath not in the top 5 maybe because they were the go to men when times where tough & wickets hard to come by.
[[
Ted
They are not in the top 5 because of the reasons you mention. They are not there because they shared the wickets. Still McGrath is in 6th position.
Ananth:
]]
This analysis is a prominent measure of how pathetic the other bowlers in the team were. It is also the reason why Warne and McGrath are somewhat lower in the table, because they had each other for support, besides thier teammates like Brett Lee, Jason Gillespie were good bowlers in thier own right.
I do not know much about Syd Barnes but his stats are really too good.
As far as Hadlee and Murali are concerned, they hardly got any support from the rest of the team. This was the main reason of their percentages going up. When Sir Hadlee retired from Test Cricket with 431 wickets in his kitty, Lance Cairns was New Zealand's next highest wicket taker with 130 wickets.
Glenn McGrath and Warne do not find a place in tehe list due to exactly opposite reasons. Whole of the team was such a great unit that all the bowlers were amongst wickets, a few at least. Due to similar reasons the percentage of Garner, Holding and Wasim Akram are not so high.
Y Anantha Narayanan has over 35 years of IT background. Over the past 15 years, he has been concentrating on Cricket analysis and software development. He has been involved with StumpVision, Wisden, Hallmark Software and his own site www.thirdslip.com during this period.
David Barry was cricket-starved when teaching English in France, and study of cricket stats was his only way to stay sane. He is now back in Brisbane, Australia, and working towards a PhD in Physics. He once played for the worst team in the G-division of Muscat's cricket league.
Rajesh After doing an MBA in marketing and working in an advertising agency, S Rajesh decided that his skills might be put to better use by number-crunching on cricket. He hasn’t regretted that decision in the last six years, and edits the Numbers Game column on cricinfo.com every Friday.
Rajesh Kumar A product of Delhi's Shri Ram College of Commerce, Rajesh Kumar pursued cricket statistics at an early age before joining a nationalised bank, where he served for over two decades. He opted for a VRS nine years back, and hasn't regretted that decision. Apart from being a regular contributor to the Wisden Cricketers' Almanack over the years, Rajesh brought out five World Cup editions for Australia's Peter Murray. He has assisted Bill Frindall from 1980 till his death in January 2009 for the publications of various editions of The Wisden Book of Test Cricket, The Guinness Book of Cricket Facts and Feats, The Wisden Book of Cricket Records, Limited-Overs International Cricket and Playfair Cricket Annual.
Gabriel Rogers was born on the ninety-somethingth birthday of Test cricket, and his fate may well have been sealed from that moment. His day-job revolves around medical statistics, and he is interested in applying principles from the field to the analysis of cricket data. Gabriel has spent most of his life in the south-west of England, but has recently moved to Manchester; he hasn't quite worked out yet whether living in a city with a Test ground is adequate compensation for moving away from his beloved Somerset CCC.
Ric Finlay Having just taken early retirement as a Mathematics teacher in Hobart, Ric Finlay now fully devotes his time to recording cricket, both past and present, for the popular CSW cricket database, along with his colleague David Fitzgerald (www.tastats.com.au). His interest in the game is inversely proportional to his ability as a player, but he did once score a century after being dropped at 3 and running out three of his team-mates. His first memory of international cricket is the 1962-63 MCC tour of Australia, described as one of the most boring ever. Totally fascinated, he was instantly hooked, and has never looked back. Author of three books on cricket of a historical nature, he has provided statistics and scored for radio and television cricket coverage since 1983.