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August 30, 2008Posted by David Barry at in About
Why captains should field first in day ODIs
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First of all, let's look at the overall results between top-eight sides since 2000. In day games, the side batting first has won 144 games and lost 204. In day-nighters, the corresponding figures are 202 and 167.
The probability that such imbalances would happen by chance are about 7% and 0.1% respectively – there's still some reasonable chance that day-nighters are fair, though I would agree with those who say that it depends on the ground. Clearly the night-time conditions are having a big effect (after all, the direction of the bias is reversed going from day to day-night), and it seems reasonable that the atmosphere in different cities would affect the white ball differently under lights.
It's interesting to break these results down further. Day-nighters, win the toss and bat: win 165, lose 123. Day-nighters, win the toss and field: win 44, lose 37. That latter result is not statistically significant, but it is at least suggestive that captains know what they're doing when they bowl first in a day-nighter.
Day games, win the toss and bat: win 55, lose 90. Day games, win the toss and field: win 114, lose 89. Clear message to captains: don't bat first in day ODIs.
Since 2000, captains batted first in about 42% of day ODIs, as opposed to 78% for day-nighters. Clearly they're aware that it's often better to bowl first in day games, but 42% is still far too high.
In 2008, though, there have been just four day ODIs where a captain has won the toss and batted, and seventeen instances of winning the toss and fielding. Are the captains learning or is it just a blip? We'll find out over the next couple of years.
I'd like to thank Pelham Barton for some discussions on this topic.
November 9, 2007Posted by S Rajesh at in About
A blog for the number nerds
Cricket, more than almost any other sport, lends itself perfectly to analyses by numbers. The game has enough stats to satiate the most voracious appetite but there are so many delightfully different ways of looking at them that there’s always scope for debates, arguments and opinions. It Figures is a forum to rake up all those arguments, but also to delight in the quirks of all the trivia that so much stats can throw up. Read on ...
- Y Anantha Narayanan
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Y Anantha Narayanan has over 35 years of IT background. Over the past 15 years, he has been concentrating on Cricket analysis and software development. He has been involved with StumpVision, Wisden, Hallmark Software and his own site www.thirdslip.com during this period.
- David Barry
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David Barry was cricket-starved when teaching English in France, and study of cricket stats was his only way to stay sane. He is now back in Brisbane, Australia, and working towards a PhD in Physics. He once played for the worst team in the G-division of Muscat's cricket league.
- Rajesh
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Rajesh After doing an MBA in marketing and working in an advertising agency, S Rajesh decided that his skills might be put to better use by number-crunching on cricket. He hasn’t regretted that decision in the last six years, and edits the Numbers Game column on cricinfo.com every Friday.
- Rajesh Kumar
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Rajesh Kumar A product of Delhi's Shri Ram College of Commerce, Rajesh Kumar pursued cricket statistics at an early age before joining a nationalised bank, where he served for over two decades. He opted for a VRS nine years back, and hasn't regretted that decision. Apart from being a regular contributor to the Wisden Cricketers' Almanack over the years, Rajesh brought out five World Cup editions for Australia's Peter Murray. He has assisted Bill Frindall from 1980 till his death in January 2009 for the publications of various editions of The Wisden Book of Test Cricket, The Guinness Book of Cricket Facts and Feats, The Wisden Book of Cricket Records, Limited-Overs International Cricket and Playfair Cricket Annual.
- Gabriel Rogers
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Gabriel Rogers was born on the ninety-somethingth birthday of Test cricket, and his fate may well have been sealed from that moment. His day-job revolves around medical statistics, and he is interested in applying principles from the field to the analysis of cricket data. Gabriel has spent most of his life in the south-west of England, but has recently moved to Manchester; he hasn't quite worked out yet whether living in a city with a Test ground is adequate compensation for moving away from his beloved Somerset CCC.
- Ric Finlay
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Ric Finlay Having just taken early retirement as a Mathematics teacher in Hobart, Ric Finlay now fully devotes his time to recording cricket, both past and present, for the popular CSW cricket database, along with his colleague David Fitzgerald (www.tastats.com.au). His interest in the game is inversely proportional to his ability as a player, but he did once score a century after being dropped at 3 and running out three of his team-mates. His first memory of international cricket is the 1962-63 MCC tour of Australia, described as one of the most boring ever. Totally fascinated, he was instantly hooked, and has never looked back. Author of three books on cricket of a historical nature, he has provided statistics and scored for radio and television cricket coverage since 1983.
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