Wahab Riaz's place was begrudged yet he turned the match on its head © AFP

Defeat hurts. You feel hollow and broken. You have been let down, misled. Your expectations falsely raised, your dreams dashed. It might be your favourite cricket team, your beloved football club, or your star tennis player. It doesn’t matter how many times it happens. A true supporter is crushed, snapped in two. Today it is Pakistan cricket fans. By Saturday night we will be joined by Indians or Sri Lankans. You anticipate that this time you will be better prepared, more resilient. When defeat strikes, you realise you are just as devastated as the first time.

The immediate aftermath, those dark moments, are no time for analysis. No time to relive those pantomime dropped catches or your star bowler’s transformation into a gibbering wreck. No time to reconcile the number of lives your team gifted the greatest batsman of his age as he played as woefully as anybody can remember.

No time to consider what makes a man lash a wide half volley to cover point for catching practice or swish a stupid Dilscoop when the bowlers were at his mercy. No time either to understand why a gifted young player would square cut a straight ball from a part-time bowler only to miss it. You probably wouldn’t want to dwell on two ex-captains, your most experienced players, batting like debutants — in the wrong format.

No, I’d forget all that. Instead, remember the coltish left-armer whose place was begrudged yet he turned the match on its head, placing you in a winning position. Remember your spin trio, weaving a spell of magic over the greatest players of slow bowling on the planet. Remember the flash of resistance from the young guns in your batting order. Remember, too, the defiance and the passion of your captain in the face of ridicule, much of it malicious and personal.

If you go down that route, you might remember that your team was indeed broken, perhaps to the point of destruction, only a few weeks ago, brought to its knees by unending scandal and inept administration. You might recall that your cricketers are in exile, on the verge of international isolation. You might not forget that your country has wars to fight on its borders and within them. You might remember that nobody gave your cricketers a prayer in this tournament and relished the prospect of their collapse.

By doing that you might wrench back some nascent memories from the pit of your soul. The horrors of 1987, 1996, 1999, and 2007 will engulf you once more, not just of the World Cups but the destructive inquisitions that followed. In those days you expected success, here, if you are honest, you can’t have expected any more than was delivered. That was real pain, high expectations ripped asunder. This isn’t.

Your journey will help you wait a while to judge who stays and who departs, though you have a good idea — and that reckoning will come. Your journey will lead you to appreciate this Indian team for holding its nerve in the highest pressure game of its existence.

Your journey will also leave you with a sense of pride in the achievements of your unfavoured team because, for a week or two, despite the crushing end, Shahid Afridi and his brothers in exile reminded you of the joy and the thrilling expectation that once made Pakistan cricket great.

For that alone, that brief revival of ancient spirit, remember this World Cup campaign with fondness; a success for confounding all expectations. Today, this feels like the journey’s end but it must be a new beginning.

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Amidst the jingoism, the players themselves have set the best example, enjoying and exhibiting cordial relationships © AFP

Expectant hysteria is reaching a climax. When twenty-two men face off in the Punjab, hundreds of millions of Indians and Pakistanis around the world will turn their attention to a sport born in England but loved with a mad passion in South Asia. Does anybody doubt this is cricket’s greatest rivalry? The tension of this moment is intense, and it has spawned daft predictions of India’s defeat based on numerology and irrational fears about Pakistan’s use of a ‘kala pathar’ during net sessions.

The test the Indians and Pakistanis face, however, is not simply confined to sport. It is an examination of our maturity, tolerance, and perspective. This is the World Cup semi-final, perhaps the one-day game of greatest import that these nations have contested, fuelled by years of acrimony, atrocities, and politicking. Some of us have already failed the test, but this semi-final is an opportunity to show that sport can unite and ennoble despite a bitter history.

The players themselves have set the best example, enjoying cordial relationships even though the baggage of jingoistic expectations is their constant burden. These are the same cordial relationships and deep friendships enjoyed by Indians and Pakistanis in all walks of life all around the world. Sadly, the pressure cooker environment of South Asia too easily strips us of our maturity, tolerance, and perspective.

With the semi-final throwing up a contest between the tournament’s premier batting line-up and the tournament’s best bowling attack, we have a mouth-watering contest to anticipate, a celebration of the highest skills in cricket. Is it too much to ask that sport will transcend our differences, that winners and vanquished will be applauded for their thrilling contributions to a tournament that has exceeded expectations? Probably so but we can still dream.

A more tangible dream will be victory for your preferred nation, and in that dreaming Indian fans have a head start, the favourites to succeed. Their team is playing on home territory, on the back of consistent form in this World Cup and for many months prior to it. They are a formidable proposition at home, especially when the high electrical charge of the crowd zaps Virender Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar or Yuvraj Singh into ballistic form. A sense of destiny surrounds Sachin and his quest for his hundredth hundred, the stage seems ready for a grand moment in cricket’s history.

Shahid Afridi’s dreams will revolve around bringing down those three gladiators. Achieve that and the final will be within sight. Pakistan have the bowling resources to make it possible. Afridi, Umar Gul, and Saeed Ajmal pose a constant threat, and any assistance from Mohammad Hafeez and Abdul Razzaq is a welcome bonus.

The challenge for Pakistan’s bowlers, however, will be greater than they have yet faced. India’s batting riches ensure that, and the Mohali wicket is expected to play to home strengths. Up to this point, Pakistan’s bowling discipline has been exemplary except for a crazy late spell against New Zealand.

That discipline will be essential to prevent the Indian batsmen from plugging into the electric grid of the home crowd and supercharging their way to a large total. Hence high discipline will require the accompaniment of cool nerves to stifle India’s batsmen in the hope they might frazzle under the intense pressure of home expectations.

Pakistan’s plans are simplified by only two minor selection dilemmas. The batsmen pick themselves, following the recent form of Hafeez, Kamran Akmal, and Asad Shafiq. Gul and Afridi are arguably the leading bowlers in the tournament. Razzaq’s role seems unsatisfactory but is a vital one in Waqar Younis’s strategy — a worry for India will be that neither Afridi nor Razzaq has yet played one of their trademark blitzkrieg innings.

The first dilemma, then, is Saeed Ajmal or Abdul Rehman? Pakistan will need to take wickets against India and Ajmal is the spinner that will pose greatest threat. The second dilemma is thornier, Shoaib Akhtar or Wahab Riaz? The sentimental answer would be Akhtar but the variation in line that Riaz offers means that he is a more fitting complement to Pakistan’s key wicket-takers.

India begin favourites but Pakistan have every chance to seize the day. The game will be won and lost by Pakistan’s success in pressurising India’s batsmen. No team has yet won a World Cup on home territory, and no World Cup has seen a match of such intensity. The favourites tag is a heavy burden while Pakistan can be more relaxed away from home pressures, enjoying each moment of exceeding everybody’s expectations, they can only gain while India have their own World Cup to lose.

Should MS Dhoni’s team overcome those extreme pressures it will be an incredible achievement, which could only be equalled by a team in exile, surrounded by calamity and led by a lightning conductor, reaching a World Cup final in a country that is its greatest rival.

Did somebody say it was only a cricket match?

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The 1992 World Cup match between India and Pakistan will be remembered for Javed Miandad mimicking Kiran More © PA Photos

1975
One-day cricket was new, so new that Sunil Gavaskar played for a draw in the first ever World Cup match (he scored 36 not out off 174 balls). The South Asian giants didn’t progress to the semi-finals, only managing wins against minnows Sri Lanka and East Africa. Pakistan’s defeat from the jaws of victory against eventual winners West Indies was the high point for either nation. At that moment, one-day cricket and South Asia seemed ill-suited to each other. Pakistan had the better tournament but not by enough to gain a clear early advantage.

India 1 Pakistan 1

1979
India still hadn’t got the hang of one-day cricket, managing to lose all three matches and finish bottom of their group thanks to a defeat to Sri Lanka, who were still considered minnows then. Pakistan fared better, reaching a semi-final against West Indies that they threatened to win until Viv Richards ripped out the middle order with three wickets.

Pakistan were sowing the seeds of a reputation for unpredictability but they achieved much more than India in this tournament.

India 1 Pakistan 2

1983
India’s World Cup. Everybody expected West Indies to complete a hat-trick of victories and a loss to India in the group stages didn’t especially dampen those expectations. Both India and Pakistan progressed to the semi-finals, India more convincingly on the back of some fine batting. Pakistan’s stuttering World Cup ended with another semi-final exit at the hands of West Indies.

In the final at Lord’s, India's score of 183 was five runs less than Pakistan had scored against West Indies in the semi-final. That’s where the comparisons ended. India produced an incredible performance in the field. A towering, swirling hit from Viv Richards was held by Kapil Dev and forlorn hope became genuine ambition. India’s medium pacers were all over the two-time champions, Mohinder Amarnath taking 3 for 12.

That’s the moment the world changed. South Asia was now obsessed with one-day cricket and the World Cup. India had also outdone Pakistan.

India 2 Pakistan 2

1987
The first World Cup held in South Asia, indeed anywhere outside England. The tournament was engineered for an India-Pakistan final, with Pakistan favourites on paper. All went smoothly until the semi-finals when both home nations were undone by upstarts England and Australia.

Both nations were equally traumatised and wounded. At least, India had their World Cup win in the bag. Pakistan had nothing except a run of semi-final appearances to soothe them. Imran Khan declared that defeat had made him understand what the World Cup meant to the people of Pakistan.

India 3 Pakistan 3

1992
Pakistan’s World Cup; the year of the cornered tiger. Coloured pyjamas and satellite television transformed the World Cup franchise when it reached Australia. None of the South Asian nations were expected to excel on bouncy pitches, but Pakistan squeezed into the semi-finals again. In the process, they were dismissed for 74 by England and lost their first ever World Cup encounter with India, made famous for a squabble between Javed Miandad and Kiran More.

Facing a near-impossible run chase in the semi-final against New Zealand, Inzamam-ul-Haq produced an iconic innings, allowing Wasim Akram to execute a thrilling final flourish against England. Pakistan had their World Cup win and Imran Khan had the keys to his cancer hospital.

Pakistan’s reputation as the most dangerously unpredictable one-day nation was firmly established.

India 3 Pakistan 4

1996
A return to South Asia produced a South Asian winner, but it was neither big beast. Instead, former-minnows Sri Lanka refined the art of pinch-hitting and stormed their way to victory at Lahore’s unfortunately named Gaddafi Stadium. The collapse of the podium at the winner’s ceremony and some worrying moments with floodlights added an air of farce and incompetence to the tournament.

Earlier, India and Pakistan had fought an emotional quarter-final at Bangalore. India won thanks to a late assault by Ajay Jadeja against Waqar Younis. Briefly, Pakistan looked in the hunt, with Aamer Sohail and Saeed Anwar giving India's bowlers some tap and rowing with them too. But once Sohail lost his head, Pakistan’s reply petered out. For the first time, India had directly eliminated Pakistan from a World Cup.

A few days later, it was India’s turn to feel pain, as a failed run chase and crowd disturbance ended their World Cup with a semi-final defeat to Sri Lanka at Eden Gardens.

India 4 Pakistan 4

1999
The World Cup returned to England and Wasim Akram’s Pakistan made it to the final. In the process, they lost again to India, as well as Bangladesh. India’s poor form in the Super Six stage cost them a semi-final place, while Pakistan’s equally poor form in the Super Six stage didn’t matter because of their success in the group stage.

Pakistan had beaten Australia in the group stage, but Australia were peaking as they reached the final and Pakistan had left their best form behind them. Akram urged his players to relax, and perhaps they overdid it as Shane Warne led a humiliating rout, Pakistan dismissed for 133.

Pakistan had now reached two World Cup finals and three semi-finals without ever beating India.

India 4 Pakistan 5

2003
India rising, Pakistan collapsing. South Africa was a new venue for the World Cup and signalled a redefinition of the World Cup rivalry between India and Pakistan. Pakistan were in dreadful form, with too many players past their best. India, meanwhile, were experienced yet still hungry. Their batting order was beginning to look formidable.

When the two teams met in Centurion, Pakistan compiled a decent 273. Shoaib Akhtar had bowled the fastest recorded delivery earlier in the tournament. How would India’s batsmen stand up to him, Wasim Akram, and Waqar Younis? To answer the question, Sachin Tendulkar cut Akhtar for six over backward point, and India's first hundred runs in their chase came off 73 balls. Pakistan were demolished and dumped out of the tournament.

India reached the final but Australia were red-hot. India were never in the game, a variation on Pakistan’s defeat in 1999.

India 5 Pakistan 5

2007
The tournament that never happened. Two wins between them, and those over Bermuda and Zimbabwe, India and Pakistan may as well have not turned up. This was especially true of Pakistan, whose coach Bob Woolmer was found dead in his hotel room, and had to help the police with their inquiries into his death. Painful memories for all supporters of India and Pakistan, which makes both teams' revivals in World Cup 2011 even sweeter.

India 5 Pakistan 5

2011
The tournament’s best batsmen meet the tournament’s best bowlers in a World Cup semi-final in Punjab. It is the first time that India and Pakistan have faced each other at this stage of the tournament, and this World Cup analysis is neatly poised. The winner on Wednesday will shift history in their country’s favour.

Footnote: For the scoring system, I awarded 1 point to the country that performed the best in the tournament. When India and Pakistan progressed equally, I awarded 1 point each, except in 2007 when I didn't think either country deserved to score anything. The scores are a running total.

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Pakistan’s bowlers are executing their plans to precision © Associated Press

“Keep your feet on the ground,” pleads Imran Khan, “we haven’t won anything yet.” Celebratory gunshots are ringing out across Pakistan, fireworks and firecrackers are exploding into the night air. Load shedding has been put on hold — for a day. Pakistan simply won a World Cup quarter-final, what’s the fuss?

Cricket has a special power in South Asia. We see it in the exuberance of Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans, in the passion of Indians and Pakistanis. Cricket, a mere sport, has the magic ingredients to make hundreds of millions of people happy, bring a little joy to harsh and unforgiving lives, unite rich and poor, and rip asunder the walls between castes and religions.

And so it is in Pakistan, and among Pakistan fans, that the illness of expectant hysteria has taken hold. A World Cup win is elevated from possibility to formality. Shahid Afridi, the ‘Idiot’ King, reincarnated as a lightning rod for two hundred million expectant hearts, a captain of ambitions; Pakistan’s downward spiral of gloom broken by the uplifting derring-do of Afridi and his foreign legion.

Pakistan are fortunate that West Indies proved such inept defenders against spin. But that was the extent of any luck. Afridi’s team played with impeccable discipline, each bowler adhering strictly to a wicket-to-wicket line. When Umar Gul, whose accuracy is almost laser guided, offered Australia a little width, Afridi was straight at him, making a narrow tramline gesture with his hands. No need for Afridi’s strictures at Mirpur, all bowlers were slaves to disciplined lines, and West Indies wilted against such relentless pummeling.

Perhaps DRS has changed the dynamics of this sport? Perhaps Pakistan are back to trusting hitting stumps and pads ahead of fielders clinging on to schoolboy chances? Perhaps the timeless virtue of bowling straight has come as a shock to modern batsmen? Whatever the reason, Pakistan’s bowlers are executing their plans to precision, a blip against New Zealand excepted.

This country has always produced wicket-takers, wizards of speed, guile, and movement, but rarely in recent times have those mesmeric talents pulled together in harmony or applied discipline to their art. Banished from hosting this World Cup or any international cricket, purged of demon spirits, the Pakistan of Waqar Younis and Shahid Afridi have discovered harmony and discipline especially in their bowling. It has been a thrill to watch, a horror to face.

Surprised by such excellence, no wonder Imran’s pleas to keep our feet on the ground are difficult to heed. Indeed, nothing has been won yet except the battles to convert us from cynics to believers and return a sense of joy to Pakistan cricket. But these are no small triumphs.

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Asad Shafiq has calmly slotted into the No. 3 spot © Getty Images

A wonder of this World Cup is that all the expected teams have qualified for the knock-out stage but the tournament has still been thoroughly exciting. The so-called minnows must take great credit for ensuring that the first phase was competitive. Now, the remaining nations are close enough together in ability to ensure that this is the most open World Cup since 1999. Hence both Pakistan and West Indies will believe that with some luck the trophy is within grasp.

Of the two, Pakistan have had the better tournament, registering wins over Sri Lanka and Australia while the West Indies are yet to bring down a major power. That probably doesn’t count for much except it is better for a team to be running into form at this stage rather than struggling to find or retain it. As a result West Indies don’t seem entirely sure about their best combination or strategy, and are yet to put together a meaningful run.

On that basis, Pakistan will start as favourites in their quarter-final clash in Mirpur. Not that they should see that as a burden. Pakistan entered this competition with low expectations, and their performances have already exceeded those downbeat predictions. Anything the players achieve from here on in is a bonus. The mere fact that Pakistan have become serious challengers is a minor triumph.

West Indies are a dangerous team with the hitting power of Chris Gayle and Kieron Pollard and the bowling threat of Kemar Roach—they are not to be taken lightly or complacently. I don’t expect Pakistan to underestimate them, even though if you were to pick your quarter-final opponents it would be a straight choice between the West Indies and New Zealand.

Other than individual West Indian brilliance, Pakistan’s greatest threats lie in their own erratic form and the prospect of chasing a decent total under lights. When Pakistan fans tune in to the match build-up and discover that their team has won the toss and is batting first, they may experience the first twinges of expectant hysteria and the tingling prospect of a semi-final spot.

Batting second will be an unnerving experience, however, just as it proved against India in the 1996 World Cup quarter-final. Waqar Younis, the current coach, will remember that day with pain. When Aamer Sohail threw the ball to him, the world expected an exemplar in toe-crushing death bowling. Instead Ajay Jadeja battered Waqar to reach a total that was beyond a bright and emotional start by Sohail and Saeed Anwar.

In terms of strategy, Pakistan’s only serious consideration looks to be whether or not to introduce Saeed Ajmal? Despite the ongoing debate over selection it would be hard to imagine a change to the bowlers who dismissed Australia for 176 unless Ajmal, a more attacking spinner and a greater threat to left-handers, replaces Abdul Rehman.

The batting line-up has a neat balance of wise heads and young guns running into form. Important performances by Asad Shafiq and Umar Akmal against Australia will have been crucial for confidence, but they will require players to start firing at the top of the order if they are to go all the way in this World Cup.

As ever, it is Pakistan’s bowling that offers most hope. Bowlers from Pakistan, South Africa, and Sri Lanka impressed the most in the group stages, with their teams occupying the top positions. The question now is whether or not those teams will be the ones to progress to the semi-finals?

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Shahid Afridi's 'starman' celebration is inspirational and fun © Getty Images

Pakistan end Australia's unbeaten World Cup record and Shahid Afridi, the winning captain, is an idiot? Excuse me, is that news? Afridi's stupidity is well documented. This is ball-biting pitch-dancing cow-cornering Shahid Afridi we are discussing, isn't it?

Ever since his debut in 1996, Afridi's batting performances have been desperate attempts to suppress the madness of King Shahid. This mental anguish is mostly futile but invariably compulsive viewing. That's why cricket fans around the world love Afridi, whatever Ian Chappell has to say about his irresponsibility or his self-obsessed starman celebration.

Pakistan might crash against West Indies, and then Chappell can reprise his words around the globe and into a billion homes, but that will not change three salient facts.

Afridi took on the Pakistan one-day captaincy at a time of deep crisis and limited alternatives. He galvanised the players into unexpected contenders for this year's World Cup. Nothing 'idiotic' or 'frenetic' about that, rather something to be applauded.

Secondly, his starman celebration predates his captaincy. It is both inspirational and, lest we forget why we watch in the first place, it is fun. As far as I can remember, bowlers have always taken 'the glory' when they have taken a wicket--Afridi has become an exceptional one-day bowler, the leading wicket-taker in the tournament no less.

Finally, Pakistan under the captaincy of 'idiot' Afridi managed what no other team captained by various unfrenetic non-idiots has managed for over a decade: they beat Australia in a World Cup match. If it takes a touch of madness to pull off such a result then, as you'd expect, I'm with the idiots every time.

Indeed, a more troublesome issue for Australia is that your World Cup campaign must be in genuine danger if you are walloped by a team led by an idiot? Alternatively, use of such phraseology by your country's most prominent commentator is a frenetic case of sour grapes of idiotic proportions and should immediately be replaced by the incisive analysis he is reputed for.

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The last time Australia lost a World Cup match, Abdul Razzaq and Shoaib Akhtar both played. It was a dramatic May day in Leeds, when Pakistan fans owned Headingley with their flags and claxons, the kind of occasion that inspired the ECB that a neutral Test series involving Pakistan was bound to succeed. How wrong that proved to be, with last summer’s experiment making embarrassing losses.

Equally wrong was everyone who gloated over Australia’s demise after such a thrilling defeat. Steven Waugh looked pained, almost broken, as he acknowledged his team would need to win an improbable seven matches in a row to win World Cup 1999. That hurt sparked an undefeated run in World Cup cricket spanning four tournaments, three decades, three trophies, and two millennia.

Wins over Australia and New Zealand in 1999 were Pakistan’s champagne moments, the last time they thrilled at a World Cup. It was less of a thrill for Waqar Younis, Pakistan’s current coach. I remember looking across the balcony that separates the press box from the players’ dressing rooms at Headingley and seeing Waqar looking on wistfully as his fellows completed a dramatic victory.

Waqar was in Pakistan’s squad for the 1999 World Cup but he didn’t play a match of note. It was the second World Cup final he could have played had fate dealt him a winner’s hand. Shoaib, the new express, had taken his place on the tracks. Either side of that tournament the World Cup continued to deliver heartache for Waqar, as a bowler in 1996 and then as a captain in 2003.

Now, another twist of fate has placed Waqar in command of Shoaib’s final destiny, accelerated by an announcement that was part well-timed and part ill-timed. As good as it is for Shoaib to leave on his own terms it wasn’t necessary to create a distraction at this point in the tournament, especially when he is at the centre of a selection conundrum.

All the evidence on Waqar points towards an aggressive bowler but a defensive captain and coach, which means the clamour for an extra bowler is likely to go unheeded. Shahid Afridi has almost confirmed as much. With Asad Shafiq looking set to retain his place and Umar Akmal a good bet to replace Ahmed Shehzad, the Shoaib issue remains unresolved.

An opening combination of Shoaib and Razzaq is a liability at both ends of an innings, and Shoaib’s deterioration in second and third spells is a particular worry. Pakistan will now want to settle on their best team for this tournament, the Australia match is a dress-rehearsal for a World Cup Quarter Final, not a time for experimentation.

On that basis, the odds favour Wahab Riaz’s selection against Australia. Now Shoaib could be looking on wistfully, with Waqar beside him, as Shahid Afridi’s Pakistan attempt to end Australia’s incredible run that Wasim Akram’s Pakistan started. Australia remain strong but are more beatable. That 1999 side included the Waugh twins, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne, and Glenn McGrath—to think that anybody seriously thought it was the end of the road?

After a period of clear separation, Australia’s recent decline has brought the two countries closer together. Pakistan are capable of completing a neat historical sandwich, despite the coach’s penchant for an extra batsman or two. If his men succeed, Waqar’s victory smile will stretch a little wider in memory of his solitary vigil in the Headingley dressing room as a rousing clamour greeted every Australian wicket and propelled Pakistan to a famous triumph.

Back in those days, Shoaib Akhtar had the world at the mercy of his bendy elbows. Now the world has moved on and so must Shoaib.

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Pakistan’s serene progress to the World Cup quarter finals suddenly became a shambles in the final ten overs of the New Zealand innings. The Kiwi batsmen were powerful and clinical but Pakistan’s death bowling was dreadful, probably the worst I’ve ever seen from an attack renowned for excelling in this period of an innings. Waqar Younis, who was a master at the death, must have been cringing.

Despite Pakistan’s control for the first 40 overs, there were signs of trouble. The fielding was sloppier than it has been in this tournament, and Kamran Akmal set the tone with a resounding return to dreadful form. By missing at least three chances, two of them sitters, he presented Ross Taylor with welcome birthday gifts and Pakistan fans with an unwelcome reminder of the bad old days.

Paradoxically, Taylor may have helped Pakistan by exposing the current weaknesses in their strategy, which have been happily glossed over by three early victories. Apart from focusing attention on Kamran Akmal’s wicket keeping, Taylor strengthened arguments that Pakistan are a bowler light in their selection, and this is where the loss of Mohammad Aamer is being felt.

The next game against Zimbabwe is an ideal opportunity to try a new combination. Bringing in Wahab Riaz to replace one of the top three batsmen would give Afridi more options in the death overs and a better opening partner for Shoaib Akhtar. Saeed Ajmal is a wicket taker and a skilled operator in the final overs, a better option for me than Abdul Rehman.

Much of Pakistan’s selection appears to be based on bolstering the batting but eight batsmen have rarely been able to achieve what seven batsmen couldn’t. Pakistan must rely on their players to take responsibility. Gul is a more than capable number eight and Wahab a useful clubber at nine. Razzaq must be itching for a return to the top end of the batting order on these benign tracks.

Pakistan have the ingredients to mount a challenge for the trophy but they need to be positive in selection as well as in performance. Whoever Pakistan select, as long as they bowl as they did in the final ten overs of the New Zealand innings and Kamran Akmal continues his woeful form, they will venture no further than the quarter finals of this increasingly open tournament.

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Pakistan have stumbled in the first stage in the previous two World Cups © AFP

Until the turn of this century qualifying from the first stage of a World Cup had become a formality for Pakistan. One-day cricket was a successful specialism for Pakistan’s cricketers. That same minimum standard was expected in 2003 when Waqar Younis, the current coach, captained his country in South Africa. A listless, over-the-hill team crashed out of the group stages. Redemption was expected in 2007 under the dogged captaincy of Inzamam-ul Haq but nobody could have predicted the climactic events that followed.

Now Pakistan have all but qualified for the second stage of a World Cup tournament for the first time this century, a remarkable statistic. In typical Pakistani fashion, Shahid Afridi’s team has progressed rapidly when it might have been expected to falter. We know Pakistan cricket has been an enigma, and it remains one today. One minute we are surprised by the team’s apparent consistency, the next shocked that it is stumbling against Canada, rekindling terrible memories of the 2007 decider against Ireland.

Yet this eternal drama never ceases to fascinate. Why would it? Pakistan’s cricketers are capable of swinging from exhilarating panache to laughable amateurism in a matter of moments. Canada brought out the worst in the batsmen but the best in the bowlers, although the performance did produce consolation on three fronts.

First, and most importantly, Pakistan have not lost that precious ability to surprise, something that their recent consistency had masked. Second, it is better to stumble now than later in the tournament. The team that wins the World Cup by definition peaks at the right time. Finally, there was a healthy desire to fight for victory, a trait that deserted Pakistan in their whimpering defeats in the past two World Cups.

With current progress, Pakistan have confirmed that they are challengers, nothing more. Defeats of Kenya and Canada don’t confer favourite status, but a win over Sri Lanka on home turf does suggest a team is capable of a genuine challenge for the trophy. Indeed, on the evidence of what we have seen so far, few teams can match Pakistan’s variety and penetration in bowling.

Three matches remain to turn the current sense of relief into genuine optimism. The team formula isn’t quite right, some of the batsmen are yet to find their form, and sloppiness in the field could cost Pakistan a tight match. Wasn’t it ever thus?

The half way point of the group stages is a time for Pakistan to be quietly satisfied with their work. The rest of us might wonder how a country that has experienced such upheaval in cricket and in civil society over at least a decade, possesses cricketers of sufficient talent to threaten more prosperous, stable, and privileged powers?

Waqar and Afridi, and their troops, might exasperate us as the competition wears on but they deserve some gratitude from Pakistan’s supporters for restoring a little pride and belief after a season of absolute disillusionment.

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Pakistan's bowling attack could use more firepower © AFP

Pakistan, like all the major teams, have three banana skins to avoid to ensure qualification and they neatly sidestepped the first one. In their last two one-day series Pakistan have rallied well and developed a consistency about their cricket, which was continued at the cavernous Hambantota stadium.

The surfaces in the United Arab Emirates and New Zealand managed to replicate South Asian conditions, a factor that has helped ensure that Pakistan’s players are decently prepared. Familiar conditions help mask the vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s batting order, allowing the bowlers to make a decisive impact. And it is on that point that Pakistan face something of a dilemma.

The current selection, with batting in depth, is a healthy insurance policy for disaster against a minor nation but less suited to winning the trophy. The extra batsman is probably unnecessary. As the tournament progresses, the better teams will eye up an opening attack of Shoaib Akhtar (past his best) and Abdul Razzaq (short of pace) and lick their lips for a twenty-over run spree. Shahid Afridi might then turn to Mohammad Hafeez but the reaction in the opposition will be further salivation.

Luckily, the tournament format allows plenty of opportunity for tinkering provided those banana skins are stepped over. Bringing in Wahab Riaz in place of a batsman, probably one of the openers, would be the obvious option, with Kamran Akmal pushed up to open. In that scenario, moving up Umar Akmal to split Younis Khan and Misbah-ul Haq might offer more dash up front and maintain some solidity later on.

Pakistan have options. They are playing in conditions that suit them. They are playing with unity and the air of wronged men seeking vengeance. The team selection will soon reveal the extent of their ambitions, and an extra bowler would be a statement of intent.

For Pakistan’s aspirations of causing an upset, choosing too many batsmen might turn out to be the biggest banana skin of all.

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Shahid Afridi can dazzle with the ball and destroy with the bat © Getty Images

In the tournament’s early years, Pakistan cricket fans viewed the World Cup with fascination but reasonable expectations. Defeat in a semi-final was a minor triumph, as anybody but the West Indies winning the trophy was unimaginable. Those carefree days were banished by two related events. First, India’s shock success in 1983 gave everybody else hope and an insight into the unpredictability of limited-overs cricket. Thanks to India’s achievement, as well as much political intrigue, the right to host the 1987 World Cup was awarded to India and Pakistan.

When India and Pakistan lined up for their respective semi-finals, on home territory, low expectations had metamorphosed into expectant hysteria. The pressure was too much as co-hosts and co-favourites were defeated by unfancied teams from Australia and England; the cricket world’s upstarts put in their place by the founding nations.

The scars of those defeats burned long and deep, especially in Pakistan. India had already bagged their World Cup trophy. Pakistan had become perennial semi-finalists, mere onlookers. Happily, Pakistan quickly satisfied their desires with the iconic victory of 1992, but the disease of expectant hysteria had taken hold, reaching fever pitch at roughly four-year intervals.

Indeed, a thrilling quarter-final loss to India in 1996 followed by a gut-wrenching defeat in the 1999 final only served to intensify the illness, with expectant hysteria resurfacing in the World Cups of 2003 and 2007 despite hard evidence of a decline in Pakistan cricket and its cricketers.

I guess it would be still with us had it not been for the utter demoralisation of many Pakistan fans by the spot-fixing saga. With Mohammad Amir and Mohammad Asif in our ranks, we would be imagining that our bowling attack could storm the tournament. We would put our faith in the two Mohammads and the reverse-swing of Umar Gul to compensate for any deficiencies in fielding and batting.

Instead, the reality check is that the bowling attack is decent but unspectacular. Gul remains, and is supported by a fading Shoaib Akhtar and a bouncy, inexperienced Wahab Riaz. Shahid Afridi might still dazzle but Abdul Razzaq and Mohammad Hafeez are more prosaic bowling talents.

Expectant hysteria has burned itself out. Instead we wait for the next blow to the ribs in the shape of unpredictable calamity. But does that mean I am shorn of hope? Far from it. Great bowling attacks might win you a World Cup in England or Australia but not necessarily in the subcontinent. And when it comes to it, Pakistan have enough firepower and sufficient familiarity with the conditions to pose a threat. The batsmen might not send shivers down the spines of the opposition but they can thrive in these conditions, especially with the lower order ballistics of Afridi and Razzaq.

More importantly, Pakistan are wounded; Shoaib has said as much, and that is when they are most dangerous. And, in truth, other than the loss of Amir, they are not especially weakened. The players have a point to prove and a reputation to restore. The wayward influences have been expelled, we hope, and the team has pulled together in recent months, rewarded for old-fashioned virtues of determination and unity. Playing away from the pressure of frenzied home crowds might be of additional benefit, as will finding themselves in the weaker half of the first-round draw.

With Australia less dominant now than they were in the preceding decade, this is an open World Cup with much expectation centred on the prospect of a new World Cup winner being crowned after 12 years of Aussie rule. Australia might still confound us all, but any of the top eight cricket nations could lift the trophy. The format of the tournament will ease the passage of the big powers to the knockout stages, where anything could happen, even a Pakistan victory.

On form, India might well be favourites but they will have to contend with the debilitating effects of expectant hysteria. Pakistan have no such worries. The world of low expectations is a relaxing place to be except that teams with low expectations, in their differing ways, won every World Cup from 1983 to 1999.

The step from low expectations to expectant hysteria is conceptually gargantuan but, in the distorted reality of a sports fan, it is frighteningly short and easily goaded. My advice is to resist that perilous journey for as long as humanly possible, in essence the quarter-finals stage of World Cup 2011: March 23, or Pakistan Day, to be precise.

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Inzamam-ul Haq was Pakistan's last all-powerful captain © AFP

Any tinge of happiness at Pakistan's Test series victory over New Zealand is rapidly vanishing courtesy of a farce orchestrated by the Pakistan Cricket Board. The national team's chances of winning the 2011 World Cup look wobbly enough without more self-inflicted damage.

Invariably, cricket boards know who their first choice captain is, especially so close to a major tournament. Often, the captain has some say in squad selection. While Pakistan's selection process has come to resemble a tin-pot dictatorship, the selection of a captain had not previously been in doubt - even if Shahid Afridi was to be snubbed at the last.

Now Afridi is no longer assured of the captaincy. He has either been too outspoken or too out of form to be named as he should have been. Only the PCB knows what it is playing at. Coach Waqar Younis' justified complaint about this strategy was met with a disciplinary charge. Benign dictatorships can be productive but malevolent ones are destructive.

Pakistan's last all-powerful captain, Inzamam-ul Haq, has now raised his voice against the cricket board's divide and rule policy. Indeed, this blog will record Inzi's words for posterity so that we can refer back to them in the dark days of the World Cup campaign:

"With only three weeks left to the World Cup, Pakistan have no captain and the blame goes to the PCB for creating an impasse which has divided the team into two groups, supporting Afridi and Misbah. In this scenario one cannot have high expectations for the team.

"The PCB has failed to control the situation and if Pakistan fares badly in the World Cup, people will accuse the players and not the board.

"When a team is without a captain how can a proper strategy be made? The team is playing a one-day series in New Zealand but they do not know who will be their captain in the World Cup which is very damaging."

The PCB has groomed a captain for this World Cup. His name is Shahid Afridi. He might have limitations, but, with senior colleagues around him, those can be overcome. The PCB needs to stop being precious about its own ego and start allowing Pakistan's World Cup campaign to take shape. The longer any doubt lingers over leadership, the harder it will be for the team to gather any momentum before this year's biggest tournament.

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